La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid · Spain
Goals
60%
22%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.840.892.74safe0.88–2.800.03–1.750.91–4.56safer0.62–3.060.00–2.000.41–5.06actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.188.88safe3.85–7.561.47–4.885.32–12.45safer3.35–8.061.00–5.354.35–13.41actual3.001.004.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction14.729.3224.03safe11.01–18.425.94–12.6916.95–31.12safer9.98–19.455.01–13.6314.99–33.08actual19.003.0022.00
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.146.2615.40safe6.62–11.663.96–8.5610.58–20.21safer5.76–12.523.16–9.358.92–21.88actual14.001.0015.00
Blocked shots
53%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.302.575.87safe1.71–4.881.16–3.992.87–8.87safer1.18–5.410.67–4.481.85–9.89actual3.000.003.00
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.523.8710.40safe4.32–8.731.89–5.856.21–14.58safer3.72–9.331.36–6.395.08–15.71actual7.001.008.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.6747.16safe46.35–58.9940.84–53.48safer44.76–60.5839.24–55.07actual66.0034.00
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction458434892safe392–523370–499762–1022safer375–541352–516727–1057actual614317931
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction81.7577.06safe77.53–85.9672.56–81.57safer76.23–87.2671.23–82.90
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8313.2726.11safe9.98–15.6910.33–16.2220.30–31.91safer9.09–16.589.41–17.1318.50–33.71actual11.0012.0023.00
Offsides
25%
17%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.814.69safe0.67–3.091.65–3.972.32–7.06safer0.33–3.431.31–4.301.64–7.74actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.854.87safe0.96–3.071.73–3.972.69–7.04safer0.69–3.351.44–4.262.13–7.60actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.28safe0.00–0.280.00–0.340.00–0.62safer0.00–0.430.00–0.480.00–0.92actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.475.81safe0.92–3.751.92–5.032.84–8.78safer0.53–4.141.49–5.462.02–9.60actual0.002.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.88–2.80 0.62–3.06 | 1.00 | 0.89 0.03–1.75 0.00–2.00 | 1.00 | 2.74 0.91–4.56 0.41–5.06 | 2.00 | 60% 22% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.56 3.35–8.06 | 3.00 | 3.18 1.47–4.88 1.00–5.35 | 1.00 | 8.88 5.32–12.45 4.35–13.41 | 4.00 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 14.72 11.01–18.42 9.98–19.45 | 19.00 | 9.32 5.94–12.69 5.01–13.63 | 3.00 | 24.03 16.95–31.12 14.99–33.08 | 22.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 9.14 6.62–11.66 5.76–12.52 | 14.00 | 6.26 3.96–8.56 3.16–9.35 | 1.00 | 15.40 10.58–20.21 8.92–21.88 | 15.00 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.71–4.88 1.18–5.41 | 3.00 | 2.57 1.16–3.99 0.67–4.48 | 0.00 | 5.87 2.87–8.87 1.85–9.89 | 3.00 | 53% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 6.52 4.32–8.73 3.72–9.33 | 7.00 | 3.87 1.89–5.85 1.36–6.39 | 1.00 | 10.40 6.21–14.58 5.08–15.71 | 8.00 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 52.67 46.35–58.99 44.76–60.58 | 66.00 | 47.16 40.84–53.48 39.24–55.07 | 34.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 458 392–523 375–541 | 614 | 434 370–499 352–516 | 317 | 892 762–1022 727–1057 | 931 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.75 77.53–85.96 76.23–87.26 | — | 77.06 72.56–81.57 71.23–82.90 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 12.83 9.98–15.69 9.09–16.58 | 11.00 | 13.27 10.33–16.22 9.41–17.13 | 12.00 | 26.11 20.30–31.91 18.50–33.71 | 23.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.33–3.43 | 4.00 | 2.81 1.65–3.97 1.31–4.30 | 2.00 | 4.69 2.32–7.06 1.64–7.74 | 6.00 | 25% 17% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.96–3.07 0.69–3.35 | 3.00 | 2.85 1.73–3.97 1.44–4.26 | 3.00 | 4.87 2.69–7.04 2.13–7.60 | 6.00 | 27% 17% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.92 | 0.00 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.92–3.75 0.53–4.14 | 0.00 | 3.47 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.46 | 2.00 | 5.81 2.84–8.78 2.02–9.60 | 2.00 | 24% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+