La Liga·Regular Season - 36·
La Liga·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.582.79safe0.24–2.170.73–2.440.97–4.61safer0.00–2.430.50–2.670.49–5.09
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.095.009.10safe2.23–5.953.26–6.755.49–12.70safer1.74–6.442.80–7.214.53–13.66
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6012.5924.19safe7.68–15.539.03–16.1516.71–31.68safer6.59–16.628.07–17.1114.65–33.73
Shots in box
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction7.069.3416.41safe4.12–10.016.66–12.0210.78–22.03safer3.29–10.845.92–12.769.22–23.60
Blocked shots
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.436.39safe1.08–4.841.77–5.082.85–9.92safer0.53–5.391.28–5.571.81–10.96
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.325.069.38safe2.11–6.533.06–7.065.16–13.59safer1.53–7.112.52–7.594.06–14.70
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.1550.52safe42.36–55.9443.74–57.31safer40.69–57.6142.06–58.98
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction463475938safe396–530409–542804–1072safer377–548391–559769–1108
Pass accuracy %
23%
72%
homeawayprediction67.2872.40safe63.25–71.3168.08–76.73safer61.96–72.6066.77–78.04
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2512.9325.18safe9.41–15.099.98–15.8719.39–30.96safer8.66–15.849.23–16.6217.89–32.46
Offsides
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.115.71safe1.45–3.772.01–4.203.46–7.97safer1.15–4.071.72–4.492.87–8.56
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.064.34safe1.23–3.330.93–3.192.16–6.52safer0.96–3.590.64–3.481.60–7.07
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.110.25safe0.00–0.300.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.430.00–0.88
GK saves
46%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.986.24safe1.83–4.701.42–4.543.25–9.24safer1.44–5.091.00–4.962.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.17 0.00–2.43 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.67 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 29% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.09 2.23–5.95 1.74–6.44 | 5.00 3.26–6.75 2.80–7.21 | 9.10 5.49–12.70 4.53–13.66 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 11.60 7.68–15.53 6.59–16.62 | 12.59 9.03–16.15 8.07–17.11 | 24.19 16.71–31.68 14.65–33.73 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.06 4.12–10.01 3.29–10.84 | 9.34 6.66–12.02 5.92–12.76 | 16.41 10.78–22.03 9.22–23.60 | 25% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.08–4.84 0.53–5.39 | 3.43 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 6.39 2.85–9.92 1.81–10.96 | 35% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 4.32 2.11–6.53 1.53–7.11 | 5.06 3.06–7.06 2.52–7.59 | 9.38 5.16–13.59 4.06–14.70 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 49.15 42.36–55.94 40.69–57.61 | 50.52 43.74–57.31 42.06–58.98 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 463 396–530 377–548 | 475 409–542 391–559 | 938 804–1072 769–1108 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.28 63.25–71.31 61.96–72.60 | 72.40 68.08–76.73 66.77–78.04 | — | 23% 72% |
| Fouls | 12.25 9.41–15.09 8.66–15.84 | 12.93 9.98–15.87 9.23–16.62 | 25.18 19.39–30.96 17.89–32.46 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.61 1.45–3.77 1.15–4.07 | 3.11 2.01–4.20 1.72–4.49 | 5.71 3.46–7.97 2.87–8.56 | 34% 17% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.23–3.33 0.96–3.59 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 4.34 2.16–6.52 1.60–7.07 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.83–4.70 1.44–5.09 | 2.98 1.42–4.54 1.00–4.96 | 6.24 3.25–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 46% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+