La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Carlos Muniz Munoz · Spain
Goals
61%
24%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.710.752.46safe0.75–2.680.00–1.610.64–4.28safer0.49–2.940.00–1.850.13–4.79actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.217.61safe2.55–6.261.50–4.924.05–11.17safer2.05–6.761.03–5.383.08–12.14actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction13.819.6823.49safe10.10–17.516.30–13.0616.41–30.57safer9.07–18.545.37–13.9914.45–32.53actual17.0012.0029.00
Shots in box
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction8.835.6214.45safe6.32–11.353.32–7.929.63–19.27safer5.45–12.212.52–8.727.97–20.93actual8.006.0014.00
Blocked shots
61%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.782.556.33safe2.20–5.371.14–3.973.34–9.33safer1.66–5.900.65–4.452.32–10.35actual4.003.007.00
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.873.569.43safe3.67–8.081.58–5.545.25–13.62safer3.07–8.671.05–6.084.12–14.75actual1.005.006.00
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction58.2743.30safe51.95–64.5836.98–49.62safer50.35–66.1835.38–51.21actual46.0054.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction555405960safe490–620341–470830–1090safer472–638323–487795–1125actual4845591043
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction82.4575.30safe78.23–86.6670.79–79.81safer76.93–87.9669.46–81.14
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5711.7022.26safe7.71–13.428.75–14.6416.46–28.06safer6.82–14.317.83–15.5614.66–29.87actual10.0010.0020.00
Offsides
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.483.32safe0.63–3.050.32–2.640.95–5.69safer0.29–3.400.00–2.970.27–6.37actual6.000.006.00
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.273.95safe0.62–2.741.15–3.391.78–6.13safer0.35–3.010.86–3.681.21–6.69actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.120.24safe0.00–0.280.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.945.18safe0.83–3.661.38–4.492.21–8.15safer0.44–4.040.95–4.921.39–8.97actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.75–2.68 0.49–2.94 | 1.00 | 0.75 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.85 | 1.00 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.13–4.79 | 2.00 | 61% 24% 16% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.55–6.26 2.05–6.76 | 5.00 | 3.21 1.50–4.92 1.03–5.38 | 2.00 | 7.61 4.05–11.17 3.08–12.14 | 7.00 | 60% 13% 27% |
| Total shots | 13.81 10.10–17.51 9.07–18.54 | 17.00 | 9.68 6.30–13.06 5.37–13.99 | 12.00 | 23.49 16.41–30.57 14.45–32.53 | 29.00 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 8.83 6.32–11.35 5.45–12.21 | 8.00 | 5.62 3.32–7.92 2.52–8.72 | 6.00 | 14.45 9.63–19.27 7.97–20.93 | 14.00 | 76% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 2.20–5.37 1.66–5.90 | 4.00 | 2.55 1.14–3.97 0.65–4.45 | 3.00 | 6.33 3.34–9.33 2.32–10.35 | 7.00 | 61% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.67–8.08 3.07–8.67 | 1.00 | 3.56 1.58–5.54 1.05–6.08 | 5.00 | 9.43 5.25–13.62 4.12–14.75 | 6.00 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 58.27 51.95–64.58 50.35–66.18 | 46.00 | 43.30 36.98–49.62 35.38–51.21 | 54.00 | — | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 555 490–620 472–638 | 484 | 405 341–470 323–487 | 559 | 960 830–1090 795–1125 | 1043 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.45 78.23–86.66 76.93–87.96 | — | 75.30 70.79–79.81 69.46–81.14 | — | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 10.57 7.71–13.42 6.82–14.31 | 10.00 | 11.70 8.75–14.64 7.83–15.56 | 10.00 | 22.26 16.46–28.06 14.66–29.87 | 20.00 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.63–3.05 0.29–3.40 | 6.00 | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.00–2.97 | 0.00 | 3.32 0.95–5.69 0.27–6.37 | 6.00 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.74 0.35–3.01 | 1.00 | 2.27 1.15–3.39 0.86–3.68 | 1.00 | 3.95 1.78–6.13 1.21–6.69 | 2.00 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.83–3.66 0.44–4.04 | 1.00 | 2.94 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 4.00 | 5.18 2.21–8.15 1.39–8.97 | 5.00 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.