La Liga·Regular Season - 36·
La Liga·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
21%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.032.013.03safe0.06–1.991.15–2.861.21–4.86safer0.00–2.250.93–3.090.73–5.34
Shots on target
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.835.729.56safe1.97–5.693.98–7.475.95–13.16safer1.48–6.183.52–7.935.00–14.12
Total shots
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4715.0126.48safe7.55–15.4011.45–18.5719.00–33.97safer6.46–16.4910.49–19.5316.95–36.02
Shots in box
21%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.719.3616.06safe3.76–9.656.67–12.0410.44–21.68safer2.93–10.485.94–12.778.87–23.25
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.446.58safe1.25–5.021.79–5.103.05–10.12safer0.71–5.561.30–5.592.01–11.15
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.979.63safe2.45–6.882.97–6.975.42–13.85safer1.88–7.452.44–7.504.31–14.96
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.1152.47safe40.32–53.9045.69–59.26safer38.65–55.5744.02–60.93
Passes
42%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction457479936safe389–524413–546802–1070safer371–542395–563767–1105
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction68.2573.44safe64.22–72.2869.12–77.77safer62.93–73.5767.81–79.08
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2411.8424.08safe9.40–15.088.90–14.7918.30–29.86safer8.65–15.838.15–15.5416.80–31.37
Offsides
25%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.233.71safe0.32–2.641.13–3.321.46–5.96safer0.02–2.950.85–3.610.87–6.55
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.301.864.17safe1.26–3.350.73–2.991.99–6.34safer0.99–3.620.44–3.281.43–6.90
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.442.836.27safe2.00–4.871.28–4.393.28–9.27safer1.61–5.260.85–4.822.47–10.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–1.99 0.00–2.25 | 2.01 1.15–2.86 0.93–3.09 | 3.03 1.21–4.86 0.73–5.34 | 19% 21% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.97–5.69 1.48–6.18 | 5.72 3.98–7.47 3.52–7.93 | 9.56 5.95–13.16 5.00–14.12 | 22% 67% |
| Total shots | 11.47 7.55–15.40 6.46–16.49 | 15.01 11.45–18.57 10.49–19.53 | 26.48 19.00–33.97 16.95–36.02 | 22% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.71 3.76–9.65 2.93–10.48 | 9.36 6.67–12.04 5.94–12.77 | 16.06 10.44–21.68 8.87–23.25 | 21% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.44 1.79–5.10 1.30–5.59 | 6.58 3.05–10.12 2.01–11.15 | 37% 16% 47% |
| Corners | 4.66 2.45–6.88 1.88–7.45 | 4.97 2.97–6.97 2.44–7.50 | 9.63 5.42–13.85 4.31–14.96 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.11 40.32–53.90 38.65–55.57 | 52.47 45.69–59.26 44.02–60.93 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 457 389–524 371–542 | 479 413–546 395–563 | 936 802–1070 767–1105 | 42% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.25 64.22–72.28 62.93–73.57 | 73.44 69.12–77.77 67.81–79.08 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.24 9.40–15.08 8.65–15.83 | 11.84 8.90–14.79 8.15–15.54 | 24.08 18.30–29.86 16.80–31.37 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.95 | 2.23 1.13–3.32 0.85–3.61 | 3.71 1.46–5.96 0.87–6.55 | 25% 20% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.26–3.35 0.99–3.62 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 4.17 1.99–6.34 1.43–6.90 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.44 2.00–4.87 1.61–5.26 | 2.83 1.28–4.39 0.85–4.82 | 6.27 3.28–9.27 2.47–10.08 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.