La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · Spain
Goals
46%
28%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.290.902.19safe0.33–2.260.04–1.760.37–4.01safer0.07–2.520.00–2.000.00–4.52actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.672.767.44safe2.82–6.531.06–4.473.87–11.00safer2.32–7.030.59–4.942.91–11.97actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction15.188.5523.73safe11.48–18.895.17–11.9216.65–30.81safer10.45–19.924.24–12.8614.68–32.77actual15.0010.0025.00
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction8.734.9513.68safe6.22–11.252.64–7.258.86–18.50safer5.35–12.111.85–8.047.20–20.16actual8.009.0017.00
Blocked shots
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.612.546.15safe2.02–5.191.13–3.963.15–9.14safer1.49–5.720.64–4.442.13–10.17actual1.002.003.00
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.593.689.27safe3.38–7.791.70–5.665.08–13.45safer2.79–8.391.16–6.193.95–14.58actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.7753.74safe40.45–53.0947.42–60.06safer38.86–54.6845.83–61.66actual36.0064.00
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction387470857safe321–452405–535727–987safer304–470388–552692–1022actual282514796
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction76.1081.84safe71.89–80.3277.33–86.34safer70.59–81.6276.00–87.67
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8212.9124.73safe8.96–14.689.96–15.8518.93–30.53safer8.08–15.569.05–16.7717.13–32.34actual14.009.0023.00
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.543.17safe0.42–2.840.38–2.710.80–5.54safer0.08–3.180.05–3.040.12–6.22actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.704.98safe1.23–3.341.58–3.822.81–7.16safer0.96–3.611.29–4.112.24–7.72actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.150.22safe0.00–0.230.00–0.340.00–0.57safer0.00–0.380.00–0.480.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.834.83safe0.59–3.421.27–4.381.86–7.80safer0.20–3.810.84–4.811.04–8.62actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.33–2.26 0.07–2.52 | 1.00 | 0.90 0.04–1.76 0.00–2.00 | 1.00 | 2.19 0.37–4.01 0.00–4.52 | 2.00 | 46% 28% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.82–6.53 2.32–7.03 | 4.00 | 2.76 1.06–4.47 0.59–4.94 | 3.00 | 7.44 3.87–11.00 2.91–11.97 | 7.00 | 70% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.18 11.48–18.89 10.45–19.92 | 15.00 | 8.55 5.17–11.92 4.24–12.86 | 10.00 | 23.73 16.65–30.81 14.68–32.77 | 25.00 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 6.22–11.25 5.35–12.11 | 8.00 | 4.95 2.64–7.25 1.85–8.04 | 9.00 | 13.68 8.86–18.50 7.20–20.16 | 17.00 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 2.02–5.19 1.49–5.72 | 1.00 | 2.54 1.13–3.96 0.64–4.44 | 2.00 | 6.15 3.15–9.14 2.13–10.17 | 3.00 | 59% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.79 2.79–8.39 | 3.00 | 3.68 1.70–5.66 1.16–6.19 | 7.00 | 9.27 5.08–13.45 3.95–14.58 | 10.00 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 46.77 40.45–53.09 38.86–54.68 | 36.00 | 53.74 47.42–60.06 45.83–61.66 | 64.00 | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 387 321–452 304–470 | 282 | 470 405–535 388–552 | 514 | 857 727–987 692–1022 | 796 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.10 71.89–80.32 70.59–81.62 | — | 81.84 77.33–86.34 76.00–87.67 | — | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 11.82 8.96–14.68 8.08–15.56 | 14.00 | 12.91 9.96–15.85 9.05–16.77 | 9.00 | 24.73 18.93–30.53 17.13–32.34 | 23.00 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.42–2.84 0.08–3.18 | 2.00 | 1.54 0.38–2.71 0.05–3.04 | 1.00 | 3.17 0.80–5.54 0.12–6.22 | 3.00 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.23–3.34 0.96–3.61 | 3.00 | 2.70 1.58–3.82 1.29–4.11 | 1.00 | 4.98 2.81–7.16 2.24–7.72 | 4.00 | 34% 18% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.00 0.59–3.42 0.20–3.81 | 2.00 | 2.83 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.81 | 3.00 | 4.83 1.86–7.80 1.04–8.62 | 5.00 | 27% 18% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+