La Liga·Regular Season - 27·
La Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
28%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.032.33safe0.34–2.280.17–1.880.51–4.16safer0.09–2.530.00–2.110.03–4.64
Shots on target
50%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.243.697.93safe2.37–6.101.95–5.434.32–11.53safer1.88–6.591.48–5.903.37–12.49
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7211.4425.16safe9.79–17.647.88–15.0017.67–32.64safer8.70–18.736.92–15.9615.62–34.69
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.456.7915.24safe5.51–11.394.11–9.479.62–20.87safer4.68–12.223.37–10.218.05–22.43
Blocked shots
59%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.872.796.66safe1.99–5.751.14–4.453.13–10.20safer1.45–6.300.65–4.942.09–11.24
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.1710.00safe3.62–8.052.17–6.175.79–14.22safer3.05–8.621.63–6.704.68–15.32
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction59.0440.11safe52.25–65.8333.32–46.89safer50.58–67.5031.65–48.56
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction523353876safe456–591286–419743–1010safer438–609269–437707–1046
Pass accuracy %
69%
26%
homeawayprediction71.9467.51safe67.91–75.9763.18–71.83safer66.62–77.2661.87–73.14
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7514.2026.95safe9.91–15.5811.25–17.1421.16–32.73safer9.15–16.3410.51–17.8919.66–34.23
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.523.09safe0.42–2.740.42–2.610.84–5.35safer0.12–3.040.14–2.900.25–5.94
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.354.16safe0.76–2.861.22–3.481.99–6.34safer0.50–3.130.93–3.771.43–6.90
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.005.69safe1.25–4.131.44–4.562.70–8.68safer0.87–4.511.02–4.981.88–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.33 0.51–4.16 0.03–4.64 | 43% 28% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.24 2.37–6.10 1.88–6.59 | 3.69 1.95–5.43 1.48–5.90 | 7.93 4.32–11.53 3.37–12.49 | 50% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.72 9.79–17.64 8.70–18.73 | 11.44 7.88–15.00 6.92–15.96 | 25.16 17.67–32.64 15.62–34.69 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.45 5.51–11.39 4.68–12.22 | 6.79 4.11–9.47 3.37–10.21 | 15.24 9.62–20.87 8.05–22.43 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 1.99–5.75 1.45–6.30 | 2.79 1.14–4.45 0.65–4.94 | 6.66 3.13–10.20 2.09–11.24 | 59% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.62–8.05 3.05–8.62 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.63–6.70 | 10.00 5.79–14.22 4.68–15.32 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 59.04 52.25–65.83 50.58–67.50 | 40.11 33.32–46.89 31.65–48.56 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 523 456–591 438–609 | 353 286–419 269–437 | 876 743–1010 707–1046 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.94 67.91–75.97 66.62–77.26 | 67.51 63.18–71.83 61.87–73.14 | — | 69% 26% |
| Fouls | 12.75 9.91–15.58 9.15–16.34 | 14.20 11.25–17.14 10.51–17.89 | 26.95 21.16–32.73 19.66–34.23 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.52 0.42–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.09 0.84–5.35 0.25–5.94 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.16 1.99–6.34 1.43–6.90 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.25–4.13 0.87–4.51 | 3.00 1.44–4.56 1.02–4.98 | 5.69 2.70–8.68 1.88–9.49 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+