Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban · Spain
Goals
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.743.093.84safe0.00–1.712.23–3.952.02–5.66safer0.00–1.971.99–4.201.51–6.17actual2.004.006.00
Shots on target
94%
homeawaytotalprediction2.828.4111.23safe0.96–4.676.71–10.127.67–14.80safer0.46–5.176.24–10.596.70–15.76actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction6.6519.9126.55safe2.94–10.3516.53–23.2919.47–33.64safer1.91–11.3815.60–24.2217.51–35.60actual13.0012.0025.00
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction4.9613.5018.45safe2.44–7.4711.20–15.8013.64–23.27safer1.57–8.3410.40–16.6011.98–24.93actual10.0010.0020.00
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction2.054.956.99safe0.47–3.633.53–6.364.00–9.99safer0.00–4.173.04–6.852.97–11.01actual3.003.006.00
Corners
93%
homeawaytotalprediction2.156.979.12safe0.00–4.354.99–8.954.93–13.30safer0.00–4.954.45–9.483.80–14.43actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction28.1970.46safe21.87–34.5064.15–76.78safer20.27–36.1062.55–78.38actual25.0075.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction2777311008safe212–343666–795878–1138safer194–360648–813843–1173actual2457801025
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction73.7387.31safe69.51–77.9482.81–91.82safer68.21–79.2481.48–93.15
Fouls
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction11.328.2719.59safe8.46–14.185.33–11.2213.79–25.39safer7.58–15.064.41–12.1311.99–27.20actual11.0011.0022.00
Offsides
54%
17%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.265.28safe1.81–4.231.10–3.422.90–7.65safer1.46–4.570.76–3.752.23–8.32actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.523.43safe0.85–2.970.40–2.641.26–5.61safer0.58–3.240.11–2.930.69–6.17actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.631.926.56safe3.22–6.050.37–3.483.59–9.52safer2.83–6.430.00–3.912.77–10.34actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.74 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.97 | 2.00 | 3.09 2.23–3.95 1.99–4.20 | 4.00 | 3.84 2.02–5.66 1.51–6.17 | 6.00 | 83% |
| Shots on target | 2.82 0.96–4.67 0.46–5.17 | 7.00 | 8.41 6.71–10.12 6.24–10.59 | 6.00 | 11.23 7.67–14.80 6.70–15.76 | 13.00 | 94% |
| Total shots | 6.65 2.94–10.35 1.91–11.38 | 13.00 | 19.91 16.53–23.29 15.60–24.22 | 12.00 | 26.55 19.47–33.64 17.51–35.60 | 25.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 4.96 2.44–7.47 1.57–8.34 | 10.00 | 13.50 11.20–15.80 10.40–16.60 | 10.00 | 18.45 13.64–23.27 11.98–24.93 | 20.00 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 2.05 0.47–3.63 0.00–4.17 | 3.00 | 4.95 3.53–6.36 3.04–6.85 | 3.00 | 6.99 4.00–9.99 2.97–11.01 | 6.00 | 82% |
| Corners | 2.15 0.00–4.35 0.00–4.95 | 3.00 | 6.97 4.99–8.95 4.45–9.48 | 5.00 | 9.12 4.93–13.30 3.80–14.43 | 8.00 | 93% |
| Possession % | 28.19 21.87–34.50 20.27–36.10 | 25.00 | 70.46 64.15–76.78 62.55–78.38 | 75.00 | — | — | 100% |
| Passes | 277 212–343 194–360 | 245 | 731 666–795 648–813 | 780 | 1008 878–1138 843–1173 | 1025 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.73 69.51–77.94 68.21–79.24 | — | 87.31 82.81–91.82 81.48–93.15 | — | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 11.32 8.46–14.18 7.58–15.06 | 11.00 | 8.27 5.33–11.22 4.41–12.13 | 11.00 | 19.59 13.79–25.39 11.99–27.20 | 22.00 | 72% 21% |
| Offsides | 3.02 1.81–4.23 1.46–4.57 | 4.00 | 2.26 1.10–3.42 0.76–3.75 | 2.00 | 5.28 2.90–7.65 2.23–8.32 | 6.00 | 54% 17% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.85–2.97 0.58–3.24 | 1.00 | 1.52 0.40–2.64 0.11–2.93 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.69–6.17 | 2.00 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 4.63 3.22–6.05 2.83–6.43 | 2.00 | 1.92 0.37–3.48 0.00–3.91 | 4.00 | 6.56 3.59–9.52 2.77–10.34 | 6.00 | 81% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.