Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luis Bestard Servera · Spain
Goals
46%
28%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.300.892.19safe0.33–2.260.03–1.750.37–4.01safer0.07–2.520.00–2.000.00–4.52actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
60%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.207.58safe2.52–6.231.49–4.914.01–11.14safer2.02–6.731.02–5.373.05–12.11actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1710.1823.35safe9.47–16.876.81–13.5616.27–30.43safer8.43–17.905.87–14.4914.31–32.40actual11.006.0017.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction9.275.8015.07safe6.75–11.783.50–8.1010.25–19.88safer5.89–12.652.70–8.908.59–21.55actual5.003.008.00
Blocked shots
61%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.812.626.43safe2.22–5.391.21–4.033.43–9.43safer1.69–5.930.72–4.522.41–10.45actual2.002.004.00
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.109.23safe2.93–7.342.12–6.075.05–13.42safer2.34–7.941.58–6.613.92–14.55actual3.004.007.00
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.4549.33safe45.13–57.7643.01–55.65safer43.53–59.3641.42–57.25actual61.0039.00
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction400383783safe335–466318–447653–913safer317–483300–465618–948actual494325819
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction79.4779.95safe75.26–83.6975.44–84.45safer73.96–84.9974.11–85.79
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5915.9731.56safe12.73–18.4413.03–18.9225.76–37.36safer11.84–19.3312.11–19.8423.96–39.17actual10.0024.0034.00
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.753.17safe0.21–2.630.59–2.920.80–5.54safer0.00–2.970.26–3.250.12–6.22actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.532.835.36safe1.48–3.591.71–3.953.18–7.54safer1.21–3.861.42–4.242.62–8.10actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.470.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
18%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.754.96safe0.80–3.631.20–4.311.99–7.93safer0.41–4.010.77–4.741.17–8.75actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.26 0.07–2.52 | 0.00 | 0.89 0.03–1.75 0.00–2.00 | 2.00 | 2.19 0.37–4.01 0.00–4.52 | 2.00 | 46% 28% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.23 2.02–6.73 | 4.00 | 3.20 1.49–4.91 1.02–5.37 | 3.00 | 7.58 4.01–11.14 3.05–12.11 | 7.00 | 60% 14% 27% |
| Total shots | 13.17 9.47–16.87 8.43–17.90 | 11.00 | 10.18 6.81–13.56 5.87–14.49 | 6.00 | 23.35 16.27–30.43 14.31–32.40 | 17.00 | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.27 6.75–11.78 5.89–12.65 | 5.00 | 5.80 3.50–8.10 2.70–8.90 | 3.00 | 15.07 10.25–19.88 8.59–21.55 | 8.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 2.22–5.39 1.69–5.93 | 2.00 | 2.62 1.21–4.03 0.72–4.52 | 2.00 | 6.43 3.43–9.43 2.41–10.45 | 4.00 | 61% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.93–7.34 2.34–7.94 | 3.00 | 4.10 2.12–6.07 1.58–6.61 | 4.00 | 9.23 5.05–13.42 3.92–14.55 | 7.00 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.45 45.13–57.76 43.53–59.36 | 61.00 | 49.33 43.01–55.65 41.42–57.25 | 39.00 | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 400 335–466 317–483 | 494 | 383 318–447 300–465 | 325 | 783 653–913 618–948 | 819 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.47 75.26–83.69 73.96–84.99 | — | 79.95 75.44–84.45 74.11–85.79 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 15.59 12.73–18.44 11.84–19.33 | 10.00 | 15.97 13.03–18.92 12.11–19.84 | 24.00 | 31.56 25.76–37.36 23.96–39.17 | 34.00 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.21–2.63 0.00–2.97 | 0.00 | 1.75 0.59–2.92 0.26–3.25 | 0.00 | 3.17 0.80–5.54 0.12–6.22 | 0.00 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.53 1.48–3.59 1.21–3.86 | 2.00 | 2.83 1.71–3.95 1.42–4.24 | 3.00 | 5.36 3.18–7.54 2.62–8.10 | 5.00 | 36% 18% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.21 0.80–3.63 0.41–4.01 | 1.00 | 2.75 1.20–4.31 0.77–4.74 | 4.00 | 4.96 1.99–7.93 1.17–8.75 | 5.00 | 32% 18% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.