La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Javier Alberola Rojas · Spain
Goals
29%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.552.73safe0.22–2.140.69–2.410.91–4.55safer0.00–2.400.45–2.660.40–5.06actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
28%
13%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.708.23safe1.68–5.392.99–6.414.67–11.80safer1.18–5.892.53–6.883.70–12.76actual4.008.0012.00
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7914.5625.35safe7.09–14.4911.18–17.9418.27–32.43safer6.06–15.5210.25–18.8716.31–34.39actual11.0016.0027.00
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction6.928.5315.45safe4.41–9.446.22–10.8310.63–20.27safer3.54–10.305.43–11.628.97–21.93actual9.0010.0019.00
Blocked shots
40%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.106.07safe1.38–4.551.69–4.523.07–9.07safer0.85–5.081.20–5.002.05–10.09actual3.005.008.00
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.2010.08safe2.68–7.093.22–7.185.90–14.27safer2.08–7.682.68–7.724.77–15.40actual4.006.0010.00
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.5148.97safe45.19–57.8342.65–55.29safer43.60–59.4241.05–56.88actual57.0043.00
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction421391811safe355–486326–455681–941safer338–504308–473646–976actual456334790
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction79.7380.67safe75.51–83.9576.17–85.18safer74.21–85.2574.83–86.51
Fouls
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4414.5926.03safe8.58–14.3011.64–17.5320.23–31.83safer7.70–15.1810.72–18.4518.42–33.63actual16.0017.0033.00
Offsides
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.023.73safe0.50–2.920.86–3.191.36–6.10safer0.15–3.260.53–3.520.68–6.78actual2.009.0011.00
Yellow cards
40%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.252.244.49safe1.19–3.301.12–3.362.31–6.67safer0.92–3.580.83–3.651.75–7.23actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.120.24safe0.00–0.280.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.430.00–0.450.00–0.88actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.695.59safe1.49–4.321.14–4.242.63–8.56safer1.10–4.710.70–4.681.80–9.38actual7.002.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 2.00 | 1.55 0.69–2.41 0.45–2.66 | 1.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 3.00 | 29% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.68–5.39 1.18–5.89 | 4.00 | 4.70 2.99–6.41 2.53–6.88 | 8.00 | 8.23 4.67–11.80 3.70–12.76 | 12.00 | 28% 13% 59% |
| Total shots | 10.79 7.09–14.49 6.06–15.52 | 11.00 | 14.56 11.18–17.94 10.25–18.87 | 16.00 | 25.35 18.27–32.43 16.31–34.39 | 27.00 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 6.92 4.41–9.44 3.54–10.30 | 9.00 | 8.53 6.22–10.83 5.43–11.62 | 10.00 | 15.45 10.63–20.27 8.97–21.93 | 19.00 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 1.38–4.55 0.85–5.08 | 3.00 | 3.10 1.69–4.52 1.20–5.00 | 5.00 | 6.07 3.07–9.07 2.05–10.09 | 8.00 | 40% 17% 44% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.68–7.09 2.08–7.68 | 4.00 | 5.20 3.22–7.18 2.68–7.72 | 6.00 | 10.08 5.90–14.27 4.77–15.40 | 10.00 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 51.51 45.19–57.83 43.60–59.42 | 57.00 | 48.97 42.65–55.29 41.05–56.88 | 43.00 | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 421 355–486 338–504 | 456 | 391 326–455 308–473 | 334 | 811 681–941 646–976 | 790 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.73 75.51–83.95 74.21–85.25 | — | 80.67 76.17–85.18 74.83–86.51 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.58–14.30 7.70–15.18 | 16.00 | 14.59 11.64–17.53 10.72–18.45 | 17.00 | 26.03 20.23–31.83 18.42–33.63 | 33.00 | 24% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.15–3.26 | 2.00 | 2.02 0.86–3.19 0.53–3.52 | 9.00 | 3.73 1.36–6.10 0.68–6.78 | 11.00 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.25 1.19–3.30 0.92–3.58 | 2.00 | 2.24 1.12–3.36 0.83–3.65 | 3.00 | 4.49 2.31–6.67 1.75–7.23 | 5.00 | 40% 19% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 1.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 1.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.10–4.71 | 7.00 | 2.69 1.14–4.24 0.70–4.68 | 2.00 | 5.59 2.63–8.56 1.80–9.38 | 9.00 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.