La Liga·Regular Season - 25·
La Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.122.72safe0.63–2.570.26–1.970.90–4.54safer0.38–2.820.04–2.200.42–5.02
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.598.31safe2.86–6.581.85–5.334.70–11.91safer2.37–7.071.38–5.803.75–12.87
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction14.699.7524.44safe10.77–18.626.18–13.3116.95–31.93safer9.67–19.715.23–14.2714.90–33.98
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.386.3515.74safe6.44–12.323.67–9.0310.11–21.36safer5.61–13.152.94–9.778.55–22.93
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.722.416.13safe1.84–5.600.76–4.062.59–9.66safer1.29–6.140.26–4.551.56–10.70
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.039.32safe3.07–7.502.03–6.035.11–13.53safer2.50–8.071.50–6.574.00–14.64
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.6952.36safe40.90–54.4845.57–59.14safer39.23–56.1543.90–60.81
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction400455855safe333–467388–521721–988safer314–485371–539685–1024
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction66.5170.37safe62.48–70.5466.04–74.69safer61.19–71.8364.73–76.00
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8712.6426.51safe11.03–16.719.69–15.5820.73–32.29safer10.28–17.468.94–16.3319.22–33.79
Offsides
52%
18%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.114.86safe1.59–3.911.02–3.212.61–7.11safer1.29–4.210.73–3.492.02–7.70
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.314.34safe0.98–3.081.18–3.442.16–6.52safer0.72–3.350.89–3.731.61–7.08
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.84
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.343.105.44safe0.90–3.781.54–4.652.45–8.43safer0.52–4.161.12–5.081.63–9.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.04–2.20 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 49% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 3.59 1.85–5.33 1.38–5.80 | 8.31 4.70–11.91 3.75–12.87 | 59% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.69 10.77–18.62 9.67–19.71 | 9.75 6.18–13.31 5.23–14.27 | 24.44 16.95–31.93 14.90–33.98 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 9.38 6.44–12.32 5.61–13.15 | 6.35 3.67–9.03 2.94–9.77 | 15.74 10.11–21.36 8.55–22.93 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.84–5.60 1.29–6.14 | 2.41 0.76–4.06 0.26–4.55 | 6.13 2.59–9.66 1.56–10.70 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.07–7.50 2.50–8.07 | 4.03 2.03–6.03 1.50–6.57 | 9.32 5.11–13.53 4.00–14.64 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 47.69 40.90–54.48 39.23–56.15 | 52.36 45.57–59.14 43.90–60.81 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 400 333–467 314–485 | 455 388–521 371–539 | 855 721–988 685–1024 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.51 62.48–70.54 61.19–71.83 | 70.37 66.04–74.69 64.73–76.00 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 13.87 11.03–16.71 10.28–17.46 | 12.64 9.69–15.58 8.94–16.33 | 26.51 20.73–32.29 19.22–33.79 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.75 1.59–3.91 1.29–4.21 | 2.11 1.02–3.21 0.73–3.49 | 4.86 2.61–7.11 2.02–7.70 | 52% 18% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.72–3.35 | 2.31 1.18–3.44 0.89–3.73 | 4.34 2.16–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.34 0.90–3.78 0.52–4.16 | 3.10 1.54–4.65 1.12–5.08 | 5.44 2.45–8.43 1.63–9.24 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+