La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Victor Garcia Verdura · Spain
Goals
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.390.793.17safe1.42–3.350.00–1.651.35–4.99safer1.16–3.610.00–1.890.84–5.50actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.443.1110.55safe5.59–9.301.40–4.816.98–14.11safer5.09–9.800.93–5.286.02–15.08actual11.007.0018.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction20.209.3129.51safe16.50–23.915.93–12.6922.43–36.60safer15.47–24.945.00–13.6220.47–38.56actual24.0018.0042.00
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction12.645.6718.31safe10.12–15.153.37–7.9813.49–23.13safer9.26–16.022.58–8.7711.83–24.79actual16.008.0024.00
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.712.648.35safe4.12–7.291.23–4.065.35–11.35safer3.59–7.830.74–4.544.33–12.37actual5.005.0010.00
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.533.5611.09safe5.32–9.741.58–5.546.91–15.28safer4.73–10.331.05–6.085.78–16.41actual11.005.0016.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.2539.94safe53.93–66.5733.62–46.26safer52.34–68.1632.02–47.85actual56.0044.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction566371938safe501–632307–436808–1068safer483–649289–454773–1103actual543415958
Pass accuracy %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction89.7382.35safe85.51–93.9477.85–86.86safer84.21–95.2476.52–88.19
Fouls
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction8.6712.1020.77safe5.81–11.539.15–15.0414.97–26.57safer4.93–12.418.23–15.9613.16–28.38actual9.0013.0022.00
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.593.24safe0.44–2.860.43–2.760.87–5.61safer0.10–3.200.10–3.090.19–6.29actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
22%
19%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.373.77safe0.35–2.461.25–3.491.60–5.95safer0.08–2.730.96–3.781.04–6.51actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.17safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction2.234.476.70safe0.82–3.642.92–6.023.73–9.67safer0.43–4.032.48–6.452.91–10.49actual6.007.0013.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.39 1.42–3.35 1.16–3.61 | 4.00 | 0.79 0.00–1.65 0.00–1.89 | 1.00 | 3.17 1.35–4.99 0.84–5.50 | 5.00 | 73% 17% |
| Shots on target | 7.44 5.59–9.30 5.09–9.80 | 11.00 | 3.11 1.40–4.81 0.93–5.28 | 7.00 | 10.55 6.98–14.11 6.02–15.08 | 18.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 20.20 16.50–23.91 15.47–24.94 | 24.00 | 9.31 5.93–12.69 5.00–13.62 | 18.00 | 29.51 22.43–36.60 20.47–38.56 | 42.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.64 10.12–15.15 9.26–16.02 | 16.00 | 5.67 3.37–7.98 2.58–8.77 | 8.00 | 18.31 13.49–23.13 11.83–24.79 | 24.00 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 5.71 4.12–7.29 3.59–7.83 | 5.00 | 2.64 1.23–4.06 0.74–4.54 | 5.00 | 8.35 5.35–11.35 4.33–12.37 | 10.00 | 82% |
| Corners | 7.53 5.32–9.74 4.73–10.33 | 11.00 | 3.56 1.58–5.54 1.05–6.08 | 5.00 | 11.09 6.91–15.28 5.78–16.41 | 16.00 | 85% |
| Possession % | 60.25 53.93–66.57 52.34–68.16 | 56.00 | 39.94 33.62–46.26 32.02–47.85 | 44.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 566 501–632 483–649 | 543 | 371 307–436 289–454 | 415 | 938 808–1068 773–1103 | 958 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.73 85.51–93.94 84.21–95.24 | — | 82.35 77.85–86.86 76.52–88.19 | — | — | — | 80% 16% |
| Fouls | 8.67 5.81–11.53 4.93–12.41 | 9.00 | 12.10 9.15–15.04 8.23–15.96 | 13.00 | 20.77 14.97–26.57 13.16–28.38 | 22.00 | 19% 74% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.44–2.86 0.10–3.20 | 1.00 | 1.59 0.43–2.76 0.10–3.09 | 0.00 | 3.24 0.87–5.61 0.19–6.29 | 1.00 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.46 0.08–2.73 | 0.00 | 2.37 1.25–3.49 0.96–3.78 | 1.00 | 3.77 1.60–5.95 1.04–6.51 | 1.00 | 22% 19% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.82–3.64 0.43–4.03 | 6.00 | 4.47 2.92–6.02 2.48–6.45 | 7.00 | 6.70 3.73–9.67 2.91–10.49 | 13.00 | 14% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+