La Liga·Regular Season - 22·
La Liga·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
19%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.122.243.35safe0.15–2.091.38–3.091.53–5.18safer0.00–2.341.15–3.321.05–5.66
Shots on target
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction4.026.2910.31safe2.15–5.884.55–8.036.70–13.91safer1.66–6.374.08–8.505.75–14.87
Total shots
28%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4816.2229.70safe9.55–17.4012.66–19.7822.21–37.18safer8.46–18.4911.70–20.7420.16–39.23
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction7.9511.1919.14safe5.01–10.898.51–13.8713.52–24.77safer4.18–11.727.77–14.6111.95–26.33
Blocked shots
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.164.748.90safe2.28–6.043.09–6.405.37–12.44safer1.73–6.592.60–6.894.33–13.47
Corners
28%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.535.9010.44safe2.32–6.753.90–7.906.22–14.65safer1.75–7.323.37–8.445.12–15.76
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.2957.15safe36.50–50.0850.37–63.94safer34.83–51.7548.69–65.61
Passes
16%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction414534948safe347–481467–600814–1082safer329–500450–618779–1117
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction66.0074.35safe61.97–70.0370.03–78.67safer60.68–71.3268.72–79.98
Fouls
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2710.8324.10safe10.43–16.117.89–13.7818.32–29.88safer9.67–16.867.14–14.5316.81–31.39
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.893.53safe0.48–2.800.79–2.981.27–5.78safer0.18–3.100.50–3.270.68–6.37
Yellow cards
52%
19%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.531.894.41safe1.48–3.580.76–3.012.24–6.59safer1.21–3.840.46–3.311.68–7.15
Red cards
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.190.080.27safe0.03–0.350.00–0.270.00–0.62safer0.00–0.500.00–0.400.00–0.90
GK saves
59%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.842.776.61safe2.41–5.281.22–4.333.62–9.61safer2.02–5.670.79–4.752.81–10.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 2.24 1.38–3.09 1.15–3.32 | 3.35 1.53–5.18 1.05–5.66 | 18% 19% 63% |
| Shots on target | 4.02 2.15–5.88 1.66–6.37 | 6.29 4.55–8.03 4.08–8.50 | 10.31 6.70–13.91 5.75–14.87 | 19% 71% |
| Total shots | 13.48 9.55–17.40 8.46–18.49 | 16.22 12.66–19.78 11.70–20.74 | 29.70 22.21–37.18 20.16–39.23 | 28% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.95 5.01–10.89 4.18–11.72 | 11.19 8.51–13.87 7.77–14.61 | 19.14 13.52–24.77 11.95–26.33 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 2.28–6.04 1.73–6.59 | 4.74 3.09–6.40 2.60–6.89 | 8.90 5.37–12.44 4.33–13.47 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Corners | 4.53 2.32–6.75 1.75–7.32 | 5.90 3.90–7.90 3.37–8.44 | 10.44 6.22–14.65 5.12–15.76 | 28% 61% |
| Possession % | 43.29 36.50–50.08 34.83–51.75 | 57.15 50.37–63.94 48.69–65.61 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 414 347–481 329–500 | 534 467–600 450–618 | 948 814–1082 779–1117 | 16% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.00 61.97–70.03 60.68–71.32 | 74.35 70.03–78.67 68.72–79.98 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 13.27 10.43–16.11 9.67–16.86 | 10.83 7.89–13.78 7.14–14.53 | 24.10 18.32–29.88 16.81–31.39 | 65% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.89 0.79–2.98 0.50–3.27 | 3.53 1.27–5.78 0.68–6.37 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.53 1.48–3.58 1.21–3.84 | 1.89 0.76–3.01 0.46–3.31 | 4.41 2.24–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 52% 19% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.19 0.03–0.35 0.00–0.50 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 16% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.84 2.41–5.28 2.02–5.67 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 6.61 3.62–9.61 2.81–10.42 | 59% 15% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.