La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Juan Martinez Munuera · Spain
Goals
23%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.943.11safe0.22–2.141.08–2.801.29–4.94safer0.00–2.400.83–3.040.79–5.44actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
26%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.624.988.60safe1.76–5.483.27–6.685.03–12.16safer1.26–5.972.80–7.154.07–13.13actual3.005.008.00
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9514.3626.30safe8.24–15.6510.98–17.7419.22–33.39safer7.21–16.6810.05–18.6717.26–35.35actual8.0013.0021.00
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.449.5617.00safe4.92–9.957.26–11.8612.18–21.82safer4.06–10.826.47–12.6610.52–23.48actual2.009.0011.00
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.853.657.50safe2.27–5.432.24–5.074.50–10.50safer1.73–5.971.75–5.553.48–11.52actual4.002.006.00
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.865.4210.28safe2.65–7.063.44–7.406.10–14.46safer2.06–7.662.91–7.944.96–15.60actual9.003.0012.00
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.9352.73safe40.61–53.2546.41–59.05safer39.02–54.8444.82–60.65actual54.0046.00
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction443513956safe378–509448–577826–1086safer360–526431–595791–1121actual524462986
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction74.1684.57safe69.94–78.3780.07–89.08safer68.64–79.6778.74–90.41
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5110.7122.23safe8.66–14.377.77–13.6616.42–28.03safer7.77–15.266.85–14.5714.62–29.83actual13.009.0022.00
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.843.63safe0.58–3.000.68–3.001.26–6.00safer0.24–3.340.34–3.330.58–6.68actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.334.47safe1.08–3.191.21–3.462.29–6.64safer0.80–3.460.92–3.751.73–7.21actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.042.935.98safe1.63–4.461.38–4.493.01–8.94safer1.24–4.850.95–4.922.19–9.77actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 0.00 | 1.94 1.08–2.80 0.83–3.04 | 3.00 | 3.11 1.29–4.94 0.79–5.44 | 3.00 | 23% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.62 1.76–5.48 1.26–5.97 | 3.00 | 4.98 3.27–6.68 2.80–7.15 | 5.00 | 8.60 5.03–12.16 4.07–13.13 | 8.00 | 26% 61% |
| Total shots | 11.95 8.24–15.65 7.21–16.68 | 8.00 | 14.36 10.98–17.74 10.05–18.67 | 13.00 | 26.30 19.22–33.39 17.26–35.35 | 21.00 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 7.44 4.92–9.95 4.06–10.82 | 2.00 | 9.56 7.26–11.86 6.47–12.66 | 9.00 | 17.00 12.18–21.82 10.52–23.48 | 11.00 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 2.27–5.43 1.73–5.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 2.24–5.07 1.75–5.55 | 2.00 | 7.50 4.50–10.50 3.48–11.52 | 6.00 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.06 2.06–7.66 | 9.00 | 5.42 3.44–7.40 2.91–7.94 | 3.00 | 10.28 6.10–14.46 4.96–15.60 | 12.00 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 46.93 40.61–53.25 39.02–54.84 | 54.00 | 52.73 46.41–59.05 44.82–60.65 | 46.00 | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 443 378–509 360–526 | 524 | 513 448–577 431–595 | 462 | 956 826–1086 791–1121 | 986 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.16 69.94–78.37 68.64–79.67 | — | 84.57 80.07–89.08 78.74–90.41 | — | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.66–14.37 7.77–15.26 | 13.00 | 10.71 7.77–13.66 6.85–14.57 | 9.00 | 22.23 16.42–28.03 14.62–29.83 | 22.00 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.58–3.00 0.24–3.34 | 1.00 | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.34–3.33 | 1.00 | 3.63 1.26–6.00 0.58–6.68 | 2.00 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.19 0.80–3.46 | 2.00 | 2.33 1.21–3.46 0.92–3.75 | 1.00 | 4.47 2.29–6.64 1.73–7.21 | 3.00 | 37% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.63–4.46 1.24–4.85 | 2.00 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 3.00 | 5.98 3.01–8.94 2.19–9.77 | 5.00 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+