Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer · Spain
Goals
42%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.082.40safe0.37–2.290.22–1.940.58–4.23safer0.10–2.550.00–2.180.07–4.73actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.247.74safe2.64–6.361.53–4.944.17–11.30safer2.15–6.861.06–5.413.21–12.27actual4.000.004.00
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction13.869.3823.23safe10.15–17.566.00–12.7616.15–30.32safer9.12–18.595.07–13.6914.19–32.28actual13.003.0016.00
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction8.466.1114.57safe5.94–10.973.81–8.419.75–19.39safer5.08–11.843.01–9.218.09–21.05actual9.001.0010.00
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.482.646.12safe1.89–5.061.23–4.063.12–9.12safer1.36–5.590.74–4.542.10–10.14actual4.001.005.00
Corners
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.019.24safe3.02–7.432.03–5.995.05–13.42safer2.43–8.031.49–6.523.92–14.55actual6.004.0010.00
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.7648.72safe45.44–58.0842.41–55.04safer43.84–59.6740.81–56.64actual46.0054.00
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction427388815safe361–492324–453685–945safer344–510306–470650–980actual348427775
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction80.2378.10safe76.01–84.4473.59–82.60safer74.71–85.7472.26–83.93
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8214.1025.91safe8.96–14.6811.15–17.0420.11–31.72safer8.08–15.5610.23–17.9618.31–33.52actual8.0012.0020.00
Offsides
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.323.19safe0.66–3.080.16–2.490.82–5.57safer0.32–3.430.00–2.820.15–6.24actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.625.22safe1.54–3.651.50–3.743.04–7.39safer1.27–3.921.21–4.032.48–7.96actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.160.26safe0.00–0.250.00–0.350.00–0.60safer0.00–0.400.00–0.500.00–0.90actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.965.06safe0.68–3.511.41–4.522.09–8.03safer0.30–3.900.98–4.951.27–8.85actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.29 0.10–2.55 | 1.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.18 | 0.00 | 2.40 0.58–4.23 0.07–4.73 | 1.00 | 42% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.36 2.15–6.86 | 4.00 | 3.24 1.53–4.94 1.06–5.41 | 0.00 | 7.74 4.17–11.30 3.21–12.27 | 4.00 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Total shots | 13.86 10.15–17.56 9.12–18.59 | 13.00 | 9.38 6.00–12.76 5.07–13.69 | 3.00 | 23.23 16.15–30.32 14.19–32.28 | 16.00 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 8.46 5.94–10.97 5.08–11.84 | 9.00 | 6.11 3.81–8.41 3.01–9.21 | 1.00 | 14.57 9.75–19.39 8.09–21.05 | 10.00 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.89–5.06 1.36–5.59 | 4.00 | 2.64 1.23–4.06 0.74–4.54 | 1.00 | 6.12 3.12–9.12 2.10–10.14 | 5.00 | 55% 16% 29% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.02–7.43 2.43–8.03 | 6.00 | 4.01 2.03–5.99 1.49–6.52 | 4.00 | 9.24 5.05–13.42 3.92–14.55 | 10.00 | 59% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.76 45.44–58.08 43.84–59.67 | 46.00 | 48.72 42.41–55.04 40.81–56.64 | 54.00 | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 427 361–492 344–510 | 348 | 388 324–453 306–470 | 427 | 815 685–945 650–980 | 775 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.23 76.01–84.44 74.71–85.74 | — | 78.10 73.59–82.60 72.26–83.93 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 11.82 8.96–14.68 8.08–15.56 | 8.00 | 14.10 11.15–17.04 10.23–17.96 | 12.00 | 25.91 20.11–31.72 18.31–33.52 | 20.00 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.66–3.08 0.32–3.43 | 2.00 | 1.32 0.16–2.49 0.00–2.82 | 1.00 | 3.19 0.82–5.57 0.15–6.24 | 3.00 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.60 1.54–3.65 1.27–3.92 | 1.00 | 2.62 1.50–3.74 1.21–4.03 | 2.00 | 5.22 3.04–7.39 2.48–7.96 | 3.00 | 41% 18% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.50 | 0.00 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.90 | 0.00 | 78% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.10 0.68–3.51 0.30–3.90 | 0.00 | 2.96 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | 3.00 | 5.06 2.09–8.03 1.27–8.85 | 3.00 | 27% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.