Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
27%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.322.40safe0.12–2.050.46–2.170.58–4.22safer0.00–2.300.23–2.400.10–4.70
Shots on target
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.344.227.56safe1.48–5.202.48–5.963.95–11.16safer0.99–5.692.01–6.433.00–12.12
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5713.3023.87safe6.65–14.509.73–16.8616.38–31.36safer5.56–15.598.77–17.8214.33–33.41
Shots in box
27%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction6.668.5015.17safe3.72–9.615.82–11.199.55–20.79safer2.89–10.445.09–11.927.98–22.36
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.947.07safe1.25–5.022.29–5.593.54–10.61safer0.71–5.561.79–6.082.50–11.64
Corners
40%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.504.739.23safe2.29–6.712.73–6.735.01–13.44safer1.71–7.292.19–7.263.91–14.55
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction54.0547.76safe47.26–60.8440.98–54.55safer45.59–62.5139.31–56.22
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction481391872safe414–548325–458739–1006safer395–566307–475703–1042
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction65.9869.71safe61.95–70.0165.39–74.03safer60.66–71.3064.08–75.34
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0812.7025.78safe10.25–15.929.76–15.6420.00–31.56safer9.49–16.689.01–16.3918.50–33.07
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.083.94safe0.70–3.020.98–3.171.69–6.20safer0.40–3.330.70–3.461.10–6.79
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.084.20safe1.07–3.170.95–3.212.02–6.38safer0.80–3.430.66–3.501.47–6.94
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
48%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.455.33safe1.45–4.320.90–4.012.34–8.33safer1.06–4.700.47–4.431.53–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.12–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.40 | 2.40 0.58–4.22 0.10–4.70 | 31% 27% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.34 1.48–5.20 0.99–5.69 | 4.22 2.48–5.96 2.01–6.43 | 7.56 3.95–11.16 3.00–12.12 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Total shots | 10.57 6.65–14.50 5.56–15.59 | 13.30 9.73–16.86 8.77–17.82 | 23.87 16.38–31.36 14.33–33.41 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 6.66 3.72–9.61 2.89–10.44 | 8.50 5.82–11.19 5.09–11.92 | 15.17 9.55–20.79 7.98–22.36 | 27% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.94 2.29–5.59 1.79–6.08 | 7.07 3.54–10.61 2.50–11.64 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.50 2.29–6.71 1.71–7.29 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.19–7.26 | 9.23 5.01–13.44 3.91–14.55 | 40% 13% 46% |
| Possession % | 54.05 47.26–60.84 45.59–62.51 | 47.76 40.98–54.55 39.31–56.22 | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 481 414–548 395–566 | 391 325–458 307–475 | 872 739–1006 703–1042 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.98 61.95–70.01 60.66–71.30 | 69.71 65.39–74.03 64.08–75.34 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.25–15.92 9.49–16.68 | 12.70 9.76–15.64 9.01–16.39 | 25.78 20.00–31.56 18.50–33.07 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.33 | 2.08 0.98–3.17 0.70–3.46 | 3.94 1.69–6.20 1.10–6.79 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.17 0.80–3.43 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 4.20 2.02–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.70 | 2.45 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.43 | 5.33 2.34–8.33 1.53–9.14 | 48% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.