La Liga·Regular Season - 5·
La Liga·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso · Spain
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.463.07safe0.65–2.570.60–2.321.25–4.90safer0.39–2.830.36–2.570.75–5.40actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.579.89safe3.46–7.182.86–6.276.32–13.45safer2.96–7.682.39–6.745.36–14.42actual8.0012.0020.00
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5512.6227.17safe10.84–18.259.24–16.0020.09–34.25safer9.81–19.288.31–16.9318.13–36.21actual14.0026.0040.00
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.757.8317.57safe7.23–12.265.53–10.1312.75–22.39safer6.37–13.134.73–10.9211.09–24.05actual11.0020.0031.00
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.487.39safe2.33–5.492.06–4.894.39–10.39safer1.79–6.031.58–5.383.37–11.41actual2.0011.0013.00
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.4710.12safe3.44–7.852.50–6.455.94–14.30safer2.84–8.441.96–6.994.80–15.44actual7.004.0011.00
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.3350.61safe44.01–56.6544.29–56.93safer42.41–58.2442.70–58.53actual62.0038.00
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction494484978safe429–559419–548848–1108safer411–577402–566813–1143actual6233781001
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction86.2185.26safe81.99–90.4380.76–89.77safer80.69–91.7379.43–91.10
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2611.5923.85safe9.40–15.118.65–14.5418.05–29.65safer8.52–16.007.73–15.4616.25–31.46actual7.008.0015.00
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.251.333.58safe1.04–3.460.16–2.491.21–5.95safer0.70–3.810.00–2.820.53–6.63actual5.002.007.00
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.142.144.27safe1.08–3.191.02–3.262.10–6.45safer0.81–3.460.73–3.551.53–7.01actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.120.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.626.43safe1.40–4.232.06–5.173.46–9.40safer1.01–4.621.63–5.602.64–10.22actual10.007.0017.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.65–2.57 0.39–2.83 | 1.00 | 1.46 0.60–2.32 0.36–2.57 | 2.00 | 3.07 1.25–4.90 0.75–5.40 | 3.00 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.46–7.18 2.96–7.68 | 8.00 | 4.57 2.86–6.27 2.39–6.74 | 12.00 | 9.89 6.32–13.45 5.36–14.42 | 20.00 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.55 10.84–18.25 9.81–19.28 | 14.00 | 12.62 9.24–16.00 8.31–16.93 | 26.00 | 27.17 20.09–34.25 18.13–36.21 | 40.00 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.75 7.23–12.26 6.37–13.13 | 11.00 | 7.83 5.53–10.13 4.73–10.92 | 20.00 | 17.57 12.75–22.39 11.09–24.05 | 31.00 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.33–5.49 1.79–6.03 | 2.00 | 3.48 2.06–4.89 1.58–5.38 | 11.00 | 7.39 4.39–10.39 3.37–11.41 | 13.00 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.44–7.85 2.84–8.44 | 7.00 | 4.47 2.50–6.45 1.96–6.99 | 4.00 | 10.12 5.94–14.30 4.80–15.44 | 11.00 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 50.33 44.01–56.65 42.41–58.24 | 62.00 | 50.61 44.29–56.93 42.70–58.53 | 38.00 | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 494 429–559 411–577 | 623 | 484 419–548 402–566 | 378 | 978 848–1108 813–1143 | 1001 | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.21 81.99–90.43 80.69–91.73 | — | 85.26 80.76–89.77 79.43–91.10 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 12.26 9.40–15.11 8.52–16.00 | 7.00 | 11.59 8.65–14.54 7.73–15.46 | 8.00 | 23.85 18.05–29.65 16.25–31.46 | 15.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.25 1.04–3.46 0.70–3.81 | 5.00 | 1.33 0.16–2.49 0.00–2.82 | 2.00 | 3.58 1.21–5.95 0.53–6.63 | 7.00 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.08–3.19 0.81–3.46 | 1.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 0.00 | 4.27 2.10–6.45 1.53–7.01 | 1.00 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.40–4.23 1.01–4.62 | 10.00 | 3.62 2.06–5.17 1.63–5.60 | 7.00 | 6.43 3.46–9.40 2.64–10.22 | 17.00 | 30% 15% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.