La Liga·Regular Season - 26·
La Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.243.26safe1.05–2.990.39–2.091.44–5.08safer0.80–3.240.16–2.320.96–5.56
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.684.3710.04safe3.82–7.542.62–6.116.44–13.65safer3.33–8.032.16–6.575.48–14.60
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1811.8228.00safe12.25–20.108.26–15.3820.51–35.48safer11.16–21.197.30–16.3418.46–37.53
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.858.2619.12safe7.91–13.805.58–10.9413.49–24.74safer7.08–14.634.84–11.6811.93–26.31
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.763.147.90safe2.87–6.641.49–4.794.36–11.43safer2.33–7.181.00–5.293.33–12.47
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.754.5210.28safe3.54–7.972.52–6.526.06–14.49safer2.97–8.541.99–7.064.96–15.60
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction54.8446.65safe48.05–61.6339.86–53.43safer46.38–63.3038.19–55.10
Passes
78%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5494551005safe482–617389–522871–1139safer464–635371–539836–1174
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction73.1774.02safe69.14–77.2069.69–78.34safer67.85–78.4968.39–79.65
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5213.3624.88safe8.68–14.3610.41–16.3019.10–30.66safer7.93–15.129.66–17.0517.59–32.17
Offsides
18%
17%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.794.24safe0.29–2.611.70–3.881.98–6.49safer0.00–2.911.41–4.171.40–7.08
Yellow cards
24%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.514.12safe0.57–2.671.38–3.631.95–6.30safer0.30–2.931.09–3.931.39–6.86
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
31%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.666.60safe1.50–4.372.11–5.223.61–9.59safer1.11–4.761.68–5.642.79–10.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.02 1.05–2.99 0.80–3.24 | 1.24 0.39–2.09 0.16–2.32 | 3.26 1.44–5.08 0.96–5.56 | 55% 21% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.68 3.82–7.54 3.33–8.03 | 4.37 2.62–6.11 2.16–6.57 | 10.04 6.44–13.65 5.48–14.60 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 16.18 12.25–20.10 11.16–21.19 | 11.82 8.26–15.38 7.30–16.34 | 28.00 20.51–35.48 18.46–37.53 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.85 7.91–13.80 7.08–14.63 | 8.26 5.58–10.94 4.84–11.68 | 19.12 13.49–24.74 11.93–26.31 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 2.87–6.64 2.33–7.18 | 3.14 1.49–4.79 1.00–5.29 | 7.90 4.36–11.43 3.33–12.47 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 5.75 3.54–7.97 2.97–8.54 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.06 | 10.28 6.06–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 54.84 48.05–61.63 46.38–63.30 | 46.65 39.86–53.43 38.19–55.10 | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 549 482–617 464–635 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 1005 871–1139 836–1174 | 78% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.17 69.14–77.20 67.85–78.49 | 74.02 69.69–78.34 68.39–79.65 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 11.52 8.68–14.36 7.93–15.12 | 13.36 10.41–16.30 9.66–17.05 | 24.88 19.10–30.66 17.59–32.17 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 2.79 1.70–3.88 1.41–4.17 | 4.24 1.98–6.49 1.40–7.08 | 18% 17% 66% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 2.51 1.38–3.63 1.09–3.93 | 4.12 1.95–6.30 1.39–6.86 | 24% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 3.66 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.64 | 6.60 3.61–9.59 2.79–10.40 | 31% 15% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+