Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa · Spain
Goals
57%
25%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.640.812.45safe0.68–2.600.00–1.670.63–4.27safer0.42–2.860.00–1.920.12–4.78actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.322.918.23safe3.47–7.181.20–4.614.67–11.79safer2.97–7.680.73–5.083.70–12.76actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction15.698.6124.30safe11.99–19.395.24–11.9917.22–31.38safer10.96–20.424.30–12.9215.26–33.35actual15.0010.0025.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.095.7815.87safe7.58–12.613.48–8.0811.05–20.69safer6.71–13.472.68–8.889.39–22.35actual11.005.0016.00
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.992.736.72safe2.41–5.571.32–4.153.73–9.72safer1.87–6.110.83–4.632.70–10.74actual4.005.009.00
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.113.9110.01safe3.90–8.311.93–5.885.83–14.20safer3.31–8.911.39–6.424.70–15.33actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction50.3650.35safe44.04–56.6844.03–56.66safer42.45–58.2742.43–58.26actual43.0057.00
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction414400815safe349–480336–465685–945safer331–497318–482650–980actual344475819
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction71.5266.15safe67.31–75.7461.64–70.66safer66.01–77.0460.31–71.99
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8411.4024.24safe9.98–15.708.45–14.3518.44–30.04safer9.10–16.587.54–15.2616.64–31.85actual7.0014.0021.00
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.663.63safe0.76–3.180.50–2.821.26–6.00safer0.42–3.520.16–3.150.58–6.68actual3.004.007.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.304.27safe0.92–3.031.18–3.422.10–6.45safer0.65–3.300.89–3.711.54–7.01actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
16%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.873.185.04safe0.45–3.281.63–4.732.08–8.01safer0.06–3.671.19–5.171.26–8.83actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.68–2.60 0.42–2.86 | 0.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.92 | 1.00 | 2.45 0.63–4.27 0.12–4.78 | 1.00 | 57% 25% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.47–7.18 2.97–7.68 | 3.00 | 2.91 1.20–4.61 0.73–5.08 | 3.00 | 8.23 4.67–11.79 3.70–12.76 | 6.00 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 15.69 11.99–19.39 10.96–20.42 | 15.00 | 8.61 5.24–11.99 4.30–12.92 | 10.00 | 24.30 17.22–31.38 15.26–33.35 | 25.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 10.09 7.58–12.61 6.71–13.47 | 11.00 | 5.78 3.48–8.08 2.68–8.88 | 5.00 | 15.87 11.05–20.69 9.39–22.35 | 16.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.41–5.57 1.87–6.11 | 4.00 | 2.73 1.32–4.15 0.83–4.63 | 5.00 | 6.72 3.73–9.72 2.70–10.74 | 9.00 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 6.11 3.90–8.31 3.31–8.91 | 2.00 | 3.91 1.93–5.88 1.39–6.42 | 5.00 | 10.01 5.83–14.20 4.70–15.33 | 7.00 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 50.36 44.04–56.68 42.45–58.27 | 43.00 | 50.35 44.03–56.66 42.43–58.26 | 57.00 | — | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 414 349–480 331–497 | 344 | 400 336–465 318–482 | 475 | 815 685–945 650–980 | 819 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.52 67.31–75.74 66.01–77.04 | — | 66.15 61.64–70.66 60.31–71.99 | — | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 12.84 9.98–15.70 9.10–16.58 | 7.00 | 11.40 8.45–14.35 7.54–15.26 | 14.00 | 24.24 18.44–30.04 16.64–31.85 | 21.00 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.76–3.18 0.42–3.52 | 3.00 | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.16–3.15 | 4.00 | 3.63 1.26–6.00 0.58–6.68 | 7.00 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.03 0.65–3.30 | 1.00 | 2.30 1.18–3.42 0.89–3.71 | 4.00 | 4.27 2.10–6.45 1.54–7.01 | 5.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.87 0.45–3.28 0.06–3.67 | 2.00 | 3.18 1.63–4.73 1.19–5.17 | 3.00 | 5.04 2.08–8.01 1.26–8.83 | 5.00 | 20% 16% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+