La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso · Spain
Goals
68%
19%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.140.822.96safe1.18–3.110.00–1.681.14–4.79safer0.92–3.370.00–1.930.63–5.29actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction5.972.338.30safe4.11–7.820.62–4.044.73–11.86safer3.61–8.320.15–4.503.77–12.83actual11.001.0012.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction17.757.1624.91safe14.04–21.453.78–10.5417.83–31.99safer13.01–22.482.85–11.4715.86–33.95actual27.003.0030.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction11.935.2917.22safe9.41–14.452.99–7.5912.41–22.04safer8.55–15.312.20–8.3910.75–23.70actual19.003.0022.00
Blocked shots
78%
homeawaytotalprediction4.762.257.01safe3.18–6.340.83–3.664.01–10.00safer2.64–6.880.35–4.152.99–11.03actual8.001.009.00
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.902.929.82safe4.70–9.110.94–4.905.64–14.00safer4.10–9.700.41–5.444.51–15.14actual8.000.008.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction63.6235.92safe57.30–69.9429.60–42.24safer55.71–71.5428.00–43.84actual68.0032.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction610367977safe544–675302–432847–1107safer527–693285–449812–1142actual656314970
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction82.6468.06safe78.42–86.8563.55–72.57safer77.12–88.1562.22–73.90
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1311.4121.54safe7.27–12.998.47–14.3615.74–27.34safer6.39–13.877.55–15.2813.94–29.15actual7.0012.0019.00
Offsides
52%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.423.49safe0.85–3.270.26–2.591.12–5.86safer0.51–3.620.00–2.920.44–6.54actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
27%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.173.67safe0.45–2.561.05–3.291.49–5.85safer0.17–2.830.76–3.580.93–6.41actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.190.00–0.290.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
79%
homeawaytotalprediction1.603.975.58safe0.19–3.022.42–5.532.61–8.55safer0.00–3.411.99–5.961.79–9.37actual1.007.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.14 1.18–3.11 0.92–3.37 | 4.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.93 | 0.00 | 2.96 1.14–4.79 0.63–5.29 | 4.00 | 68% 19% 13% |
| Shots on target | 5.97 4.11–7.82 3.61–8.32 | 11.00 | 2.33 0.62–4.04 0.15–4.50 | 1.00 | 8.30 4.73–11.86 3.77–12.83 | 12.00 | 87% |
| Total shots | 17.75 14.04–21.45 13.01–22.48 | 27.00 | 7.16 3.78–10.54 2.85–11.47 | 3.00 | 24.91 17.83–31.99 15.86–33.95 | 30.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 11.93 9.41–14.45 8.55–15.31 | 19.00 | 5.29 2.99–7.59 2.20–8.39 | 3.00 | 17.22 12.41–22.04 10.75–23.70 | 22.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 3.18–6.34 2.64–6.88 | 8.00 | 2.25 0.83–3.66 0.35–4.15 | 1.00 | 7.01 4.01–10.00 2.99–11.03 | 9.00 | 78% |
| Corners | 6.90 4.70–9.11 4.10–9.70 | 8.00 | 2.92 0.94–4.90 0.41–5.44 | 0.00 | 9.82 5.64–14.00 4.51–15.14 | 8.00 | 87% |
| Possession % | 63.62 57.30–69.94 55.71–71.54 | 68.00 | 35.92 29.60–42.24 28.00–43.84 | 32.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 610 544–675 527–693 | 656 | 367 302–432 285–449 | 314 | 977 847–1107 812–1142 | 970 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.64 78.42–86.85 77.12–88.15 | — | 68.06 63.55–72.57 62.22–73.90 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.13 7.27–12.99 6.39–13.87 | 7.00 | 11.41 8.47–14.36 7.55–15.28 | 12.00 | 21.54 15.74–27.34 13.94–29.15 | 19.00 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.85–3.27 0.51–3.62 | 1.00 | 1.42 0.26–2.59 0.00–2.92 | 1.00 | 3.49 1.12–5.86 0.44–6.54 | 2.00 | 52% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.56 0.17–2.83 | 1.00 | 2.17 1.05–3.29 0.76–3.58 | 2.00 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.93–6.41 | 3.00 | 27% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.60 0.19–3.02 0.00–3.41 | 1.00 | 3.97 2.42–5.53 1.99–5.96 | 7.00 | 5.58 2.61–8.55 1.79–9.37 | 8.00 | 79% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+