La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: José Luis Munuera Montero · Spain
Goals
94%
homeawaytotalprediction4.310.624.93safe3.35–5.280.00–1.483.11–6.75safer3.09–5.540.00–1.722.60–7.26actual7.002.009.00
Shots on target
100%
homeawaytotalprediction11.441.8313.27safe9.58–13.290.12–3.549.70–16.83safer9.08–13.790.00–4.018.74–17.80actual9.003.0012.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction25.243.8829.12safe21.54–28.940.50–7.2622.04–36.20safer20.51–29.980.00–8.1920.08–38.16actual30.005.0035.00
Shots in box
100%
homeawaytotalprediction16.363.8320.19safe13.84–18.871.53–6.1315.37–25.00safer12.97–19.740.73–6.9313.71–26.66actual23.005.0028.00
Blocked shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction5.741.557.29safe4.16–7.330.14–2.974.30–10.29safer3.62–7.860.00–3.453.28–11.31actual6.000.006.00
Corners
98%
homeawaytotalprediction9.422.2111.63safe7.21–11.620.24–4.197.45–15.81safer6.62–12.220.00–4.736.31–16.94actual18.000.0018.00
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction72.9426.08safe66.62–79.2619.76–32.40safer65.03–80.8618.16–34.00actual69.0031.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction8032791082safe737–868214–344952–1212safer720–886197–361917–1247actual646288934
Pass accuracy %
100%
homeawayprediction88.0964.33safe83.88–92.3159.83–68.84safer82.58–93.6158.50–70.17
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.239.1617.39safe5.37–11.096.21–12.1111.59–23.19safer4.49–11.975.30–13.029.79–25.00actual10.0013.0023.00
Offsides
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.115.86safe1.54–3.961.95–4.283.49–8.24safer1.20–4.301.62–4.612.81–8.91actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.971.912.88safe0.00–2.030.79–3.030.71–5.06safer0.00–2.300.50–3.320.14–5.62actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.190.00–0.300.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
90%
homeawaytotalprediction1.515.226.74safe0.10–2.933.67–6.773.77–9.70safer0.00–3.323.24–7.212.95–10.52actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4.31 3.35–5.28 3.09–5.54 | 7.00 | 0.62 0.00–1.48 0.00–1.72 | 2.00 | 4.93 3.11–6.75 2.60–7.26 | 9.00 | 94% |
| Shots on target | 11.44 9.58–13.29 9.08–13.79 | 9.00 | 1.83 0.12–3.54 0.00–4.01 | 3.00 | 13.27 9.70–16.83 8.74–17.80 | 12.00 | 100% |
| Total shots | 25.24 21.54–28.94 20.51–29.98 | 30.00 | 3.88 0.50–7.26 0.00–8.19 | 5.00 | 29.12 22.04–36.20 20.08–38.16 | 35.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 16.36 13.84–18.87 12.97–19.74 | 23.00 | 3.83 1.53–6.13 0.73–6.93 | 5.00 | 20.19 15.37–25.00 13.71–26.66 | 28.00 | 100% |
| Blocked shots | 5.74 4.16–7.33 3.62–7.86 | 6.00 | 1.55 0.14–2.97 0.00–3.45 | 0.00 | 7.29 4.30–10.29 3.28–11.31 | 6.00 | 92% |
| Corners | 9.42 7.21–11.62 6.62–12.22 | 18.00 | 2.21 0.24–4.19 0.00–4.73 | 0.00 | 11.63 7.45–15.81 6.31–16.94 | 18.00 | 98% |
| Possession % | 72.94 66.62–79.26 65.03–80.86 | 69.00 | 26.08 19.76–32.40 18.16–34.00 | 31.00 | — | — | 100% |
| Passes | 803 737–868 720–886 | 646 | 279 214–344 197–361 | 288 | 1082 952–1212 917–1247 | 934 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.09 83.88–92.31 82.58–93.61 | — | 64.33 59.83–68.84 58.50–70.17 | — | — | — | 100% |
| Fouls | 8.23 5.37–11.09 4.49–11.97 | 10.00 | 9.16 6.21–12.11 5.30–13.02 | 13.00 | 17.39 11.59–23.19 9.79–25.00 | 23.00 | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.75 1.54–3.96 1.20–4.30 | 3.00 | 3.11 1.95–4.28 1.62–4.61 | 2.00 | 5.86 3.49–8.24 2.81–8.91 | 5.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 0.97 0.00–2.03 0.00–2.30 | 3.00 | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | 2.00 | 2.88 0.71–5.06 0.14–5.62 | 5.00 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.51 0.10–2.93 0.00–3.32 | 0.00 | 5.22 3.67–6.77 3.24–7.21 | 3.00 | 6.74 3.77–9.70 2.95–10.52 | 3.00 | 90% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+