La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: José María Sánchez Martínez · Spain
Goals
63%
21%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.020.922.94safe1.06–2.980.06–1.781.12–4.76safer0.80–3.240.00–2.030.61–5.27actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.463.219.67safe4.60–8.311.50–4.916.10–13.23safer4.10–8.811.03–5.385.13–14.20actual8.002.0010.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.579.3726.94safe13.87–21.275.99–12.7519.86–34.02safer12.84–22.305.06–13.6817.90–35.99actual22.008.0030.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction11.385.5516.93safe8.87–13.903.25–7.8512.11–21.75safer8.00–14.762.45–8.6510.45–23.41actual9.003.0012.00
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.882.207.08safe3.30–6.460.79–3.614.08–10.08safer2.76–7.000.30–4.103.06–11.10actual6.002.008.00
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction7.113.7610.87safe4.91–9.321.78–5.746.69–15.05safer4.31–9.911.24–6.275.55–16.19actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction63.8136.41safe57.50–70.1330.10–42.73safer55.90–71.7328.50–44.33actual75.0025.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction577314891safe512–642250–379761–1021safer494–660232–396726–1056actual672215887
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction79.3064.64safe75.09–83.5260.13–69.15safer73.79–84.8258.80–70.48
Fouls
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1414.0324.17safe7.28–12.9911.09–16.9818.37–29.97safer6.40–13.8810.17–17.9016.57–31.78actual13.0024.0037.00
Offsides
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.193.75safe0.35–2.771.02–3.351.38–6.12safer0.01–3.110.69–3.680.70–6.80actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.564.25safe0.63–2.741.44–3.682.07–6.42safer0.36–3.021.15–3.971.51–6.99actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
17%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.976.15safe0.77–3.592.41–5.523.18–9.11safer0.38–3.981.98–5.952.36–9.93actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.02 1.06–2.98 0.80–3.24 | 1.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 0.00 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.61–5.27 | 1.00 | 63% 21% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.46 4.60–8.31 4.10–8.81 | 8.00 | 3.21 1.50–4.91 1.03–5.38 | 2.00 | 9.67 6.10–13.23 5.13–14.20 | 10.00 | 81% |
| Total shots | 17.57 13.87–21.27 12.84–22.30 | 22.00 | 9.37 5.99–12.75 5.06–13.68 | 8.00 | 26.94 19.86–34.02 17.90–35.99 | 30.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.38 8.87–13.90 8.00–14.76 | 9.00 | 5.55 3.25–7.85 2.45–8.65 | 3.00 | 16.93 12.11–21.75 10.45–23.41 | 12.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.88 3.30–6.46 2.76–7.00 | 6.00 | 2.20 0.79–3.61 0.30–4.10 | 2.00 | 7.08 4.08–10.08 3.06–11.10 | 8.00 | 80% |
| Corners | 7.11 4.91–9.32 4.31–9.91 | 4.00 | 3.76 1.78–5.74 1.24–6.27 | 3.00 | 10.87 6.69–15.05 5.55–16.19 | 7.00 | 81% |
| Possession % | 63.81 57.50–70.13 55.90–71.73 | 75.00 | 36.41 30.10–42.73 28.50–44.33 | 25.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 577 512–642 494–660 | 672 | 314 250–379 232–396 | 215 | 891 761–1021 726–1056 | 887 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.30 75.09–83.52 73.79–84.82 | — | 64.64 60.13–69.15 58.80–70.48 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.14 7.28–12.99 6.40–13.88 | 13.00 | 14.03 11.09–16.98 10.17–17.90 | 24.00 | 24.17 18.37–29.97 16.57–31.78 | 37.00 | 18% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.35–2.77 0.01–3.11 | 0.00 | 2.19 1.02–3.35 0.69–3.68 | 3.00 | 3.75 1.38–6.12 0.70–6.80 | 3.00 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.63–2.74 0.36–3.02 | 1.00 | 2.56 1.44–3.68 1.15–3.97 | 3.00 | 4.25 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.99 | 4.00 | 25% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 1.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.77–3.59 0.38–3.98 | 2.00 | 3.97 2.41–5.52 1.98–5.95 | 6.00 | 6.15 3.18–9.11 2.36–9.93 | 8.00 | 17% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.