La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
24%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction0.911.682.59safe0.00–1.880.83–2.540.77–4.41safer0.00–2.130.60–2.770.29–4.89
Shots on target
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.615.769.38safe1.75–5.484.02–7.515.77–12.98safer1.26–5.973.56–7.974.82–13.94
Total shots
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7216.3229.04safe8.80–16.6512.75–19.8821.55–36.53safer7.71–17.7411.79–20.8419.50–38.58
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3610.4317.79safe4.42–10.317.75–13.1112.17–23.41safer3.59–11.147.01–13.8410.60–24.98
Blocked shots
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.224.898.10safe1.33–5.103.23–6.544.57–11.64safer0.79–5.642.74–7.033.53–12.67
Corners
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.305.9110.21safe2.08–6.513.91–7.915.99–14.42safer1.51–7.083.38–8.444.89–15.53
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction34.2165.58safe27.42–41.0058.79–72.36safer25.75–42.6757.12–74.04
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction309611920safe242–376544–677786–1054safer224–394527–695751–1089
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction60.8277.99safe56.79–64.8573.67–82.32safer55.50–66.1472.36–83.63
Fouls
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8611.1524.01safe10.02–15.708.21–14.1018.23–29.79safer9.26–16.457.46–14.8516.72–31.30
Offsides
63%
18%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.631.414.04safe1.46–3.790.32–2.511.79–6.29safer1.16–4.090.03–2.801.20–6.88
Yellow cards
55%
19%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.381.593.97safe1.33–3.430.46–2.721.79–6.15safer1.07–3.700.17–3.011.23–6.71
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.100.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.420.00–0.86
GK saves
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.766.66safe2.47–5.341.20–4.323.67–9.65safer2.08–5.730.78–4.742.86–10.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 1.68 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.77 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.29–4.89 | 20% 24% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.75–5.48 1.26–5.97 | 5.76 4.02–7.51 3.56–7.97 | 9.38 5.77–12.98 4.82–13.94 | 19% 70% |
| Total shots | 12.72 8.80–16.65 7.71–17.74 | 16.32 12.75–19.88 11.79–20.84 | 29.04 21.55–36.53 19.50–38.58 | 22% 72% |
| Shots in box | 7.36 4.42–10.31 3.59–11.14 | 10.43 7.75–13.11 7.01–13.84 | 17.79 12.17–23.41 10.60–24.98 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.33–5.10 0.79–5.64 | 4.89 3.23–6.54 2.74–7.03 | 8.10 4.57–11.64 3.53–12.67 | 22% 66% |
| Corners | 4.30 2.08–6.51 1.51–7.08 | 5.91 3.91–7.91 3.38–8.44 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 25% 64% |
| Possession % | 34.21 27.42–41.00 25.75–42.67 | 65.58 58.79–72.36 57.12–74.04 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 309 242–376 224–394 | 611 544–677 527–695 | 920 786–1054 751–1089 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.82 56.79–64.85 55.50–66.14 | 77.99 73.67–82.32 72.36–83.63 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 12.86 10.02–15.70 9.26–16.45 | 11.15 8.21–14.10 7.46–14.85 | 24.01 18.23–29.79 16.72–31.30 | 60% 33% |
| Offsides | 2.63 1.46–3.79 1.16–4.09 | 1.41 0.32–2.51 0.03–2.80 | 4.04 1.79–6.29 1.20–6.88 | 63% 18% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 2.38 1.33–3.43 1.07–3.70 | 1.59 0.46–2.72 0.17–3.01 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.23–6.71 | 55% 19% 25% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.90 2.47–5.34 2.08–5.73 | 2.76 1.20–4.32 0.78–4.74 | 6.66 3.67–9.65 2.86–10.46 | 60% 14% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.