La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alejandro Hernandez · Spain
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.162.42safe0.31–2.230.30–2.010.60–4.25safer0.05–2.490.05–2.260.09–4.75actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
40%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.118.05safe2.08–5.792.41–5.824.49–11.61safer1.58–6.291.94–6.293.52–12.58actual3.006.009.00
Total shots
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8712.9123.78safe7.16–14.579.53–16.2916.70–30.86safer6.13–15.608.60–17.2214.73–32.82actual4.0011.0015.00
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction6.837.7014.53safe4.32–9.355.40–10.009.72–19.35safer3.45–10.214.60–10.808.05–21.01actual1.005.006.00
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.216.18safe1.38–4.551.80–4.633.18–9.18safer0.85–5.081.31–5.112.16–10.20actual0.002.002.00
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.494.879.36safe2.29–6.702.89–6.855.18–13.54safer1.69–7.292.35–7.384.04–14.68actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction52.6946.23safe46.37–59.0039.91–52.55safer44.77–60.6038.31–54.15actual53.0047.00
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction460397857safe394–525333–462727–987safer377–543315–480692–1022actual498444942
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction70.6767.84safe66.46–74.8963.34–72.35safer65.16–76.1962.01–73.68
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3113.0724.39safe8.45–14.1710.13–16.0218.58–30.19safer7.57–15.059.21–16.9416.78–31.99actual15.0016.0031.00
Offsides
37%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.763.45safe0.48–2.900.60–2.931.08–5.82safer0.13–3.240.27–3.260.40–6.50actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.324.38safe1.00–3.121.20–3.442.20–6.56safer0.73–3.390.91–3.731.64–7.12actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.080.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.57safer0.00–0.450.00–0.420.00–0.87actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
41%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.344.73safe0.97–3.800.79–3.901.76–7.70safer0.59–4.190.36–4.330.94–8.52actual5.003.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.23 0.05–2.49 | 0.00 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 1.00 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.09–4.75 | 1.00 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.08–5.79 1.58–6.29 | 3.00 | 4.11 2.41–5.82 1.94–6.29 | 6.00 | 8.05 4.49–11.61 3.52–12.58 | 9.00 | 40% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 10.87 7.16–14.57 6.13–15.60 | 4.00 | 12.91 9.53–16.29 8.60–17.22 | 11.00 | 23.78 16.70–30.86 14.73–32.82 | 15.00 | 30% 62% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 4.32–9.35 3.45–10.21 | 1.00 | 7.70 5.40–10.00 4.60–10.80 | 5.00 | 14.53 9.72–19.35 8.05–21.01 | 6.00 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 1.38–4.55 0.85–5.08 | 0.00 | 3.21 1.80–4.63 1.31–5.11 | 2.00 | 6.18 3.18–9.18 2.16–10.20 | 2.00 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.49 2.29–6.70 1.69–7.29 | 4.00 | 4.87 2.89–6.85 2.35–7.38 | 4.00 | 9.36 5.18–13.54 4.04–14.68 | 8.00 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 52.69 46.37–59.00 44.77–60.60 | 53.00 | 46.23 39.91–52.55 38.31–54.15 | 47.00 | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 460 394–525 377–543 | 498 | 397 333–462 315–480 | 444 | 857 727–987 692–1022 | 942 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.67 66.46–74.89 65.16–76.19 | — | 67.84 63.34–72.35 62.01–73.68 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.31 8.45–14.17 7.57–15.05 | 15.00 | 13.07 10.13–16.02 9.21–16.94 | 16.00 | 24.39 18.58–30.19 16.78–31.99 | 31.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.13–3.24 | 0.00 | 1.76 0.60–2.93 0.27–3.26 | 0.00 | 3.45 1.08–5.82 0.40–6.50 | 0.00 | 37% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.00–3.12 0.73–3.39 | 1.00 | 2.32 1.20–3.44 0.91–3.73 | 4.00 | 4.38 2.20–6.56 1.64–7.12 | 5.00 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.45 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 1.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.97–3.80 0.59–4.19 | 5.00 | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | 3.00 | 4.73 1.76–7.70 0.94–8.52 | 8.00 | 41% 19% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+