La Liga·Regular Season - 31·
La Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.380.982.36safe0.41–2.350.13–1.840.54–4.19safer0.16–2.600.00–2.060.06–4.66
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.603.137.73safe2.74–6.461.39–4.874.13–11.34safer2.25–6.950.92–5.343.17–12.29
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction14.349.2923.63safe10.42–18.275.73–12.8516.14–31.12safer9.32–19.364.77–13.8114.09–33.17
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction8.885.9614.84safe5.94–11.823.27–8.649.21–20.46safer5.11–12.652.54–9.377.65–22.03
Blocked shots
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.656.40safe1.87–5.641.00–4.302.87–9.94safer1.33–6.180.51–4.801.83–10.97
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.403.729.12safe3.19–7.611.72–5.724.91–13.34safer2.61–8.191.19–6.263.80–14.45
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.7253.06safe40.93–54.5146.27–59.84safer39.26–56.1844.60–61.51
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction443450893safe376–511384–517760–1027safer358–529366–534724–1063
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction67.5971.82safe63.56–71.6267.50–76.15safer62.27–72.9166.19–77.45
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2313.6625.88safe9.39–15.0610.71–16.6020.10–31.67safer8.63–15.829.96–17.3518.60–33.17
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.713.44safe0.57–2.890.62–2.801.18–5.69safer0.27–3.190.33–3.090.59–6.28
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.304.29safe0.95–3.041.17–3.432.12–6.47safer0.68–3.310.88–3.721.56–7.03
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.103.195.29safe0.66–3.531.63–4.752.30–8.28safer0.27–3.921.21–5.171.48–9.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.06 | 2.36 0.54–4.19 0.06–4.66 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.46 2.25–6.95 | 3.13 1.39–4.87 0.92–5.34 | 7.73 4.13–11.34 3.17–12.29 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.34 10.42–18.27 9.32–19.36 | 9.29 5.73–12.85 4.77–13.81 | 23.63 16.14–31.12 14.09–33.17 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 5.96 3.27–8.64 2.54–9.37 | 14.84 9.21–20.46 7.65–22.03 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.87–5.64 1.33–6.18 | 2.65 1.00–4.30 0.51–4.80 | 6.40 2.87–9.94 1.83–10.97 | 59% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.19–7.61 2.61–8.19 | 3.72 1.72–5.72 1.19–6.26 | 9.12 4.91–13.34 3.80–14.45 | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 47.72 40.93–54.51 39.26–56.18 | 53.06 46.27–59.84 44.60–61.51 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 443 376–511 358–529 | 450 384–517 366–534 | 893 760–1027 724–1063 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.59 63.56–71.62 62.27–72.91 | 71.82 67.50–76.15 66.19–77.45 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 12.23 9.39–15.06 8.63–15.82 | 13.66 10.71–16.60 9.96–17.35 | 25.88 20.10–31.67 18.60–33.17 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 1.71 0.62–2.80 0.33–3.09 | 3.44 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.28 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.04 0.68–3.31 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.29 2.12–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.10 0.66–3.53 0.27–3.92 | 3.19 1.63–4.75 1.21–5.17 | 5.29 2.30–8.28 1.48–9.09 | 24% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.