La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jesus Gil Manzano · Spain
Goals
17%
19%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.102.303.40safe0.14–2.061.44–3.161.58–5.22safer0.00–2.321.19–3.411.07–5.73actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.496.459.93safe1.63–5.344.74–8.156.37–13.50safer1.13–5.844.27–8.625.40–14.46actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1215.8325.96safe6.42–13.8312.45–19.2118.87–33.04safer5.39–14.8611.52–20.1416.91–35.00actual11.0020.0031.00
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction6.6810.2116.90safe4.17–9.207.91–12.5112.08–21.71safer3.30–10.067.11–13.3110.42–23.37actual7.0015.0022.00
Blocked shots
41%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.093.126.22safe1.51–4.681.71–4.543.22–9.21safer0.98–5.211.22–5.022.20–10.23actual2.005.007.00
Corners
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.525.849.36safe1.31–5.723.86–7.815.17–13.54safer0.72–6.323.32–8.354.04–14.67actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction45.1155.26safe38.79–51.4348.94–61.58safer37.19–53.0247.34–63.17actual56.0044.00
Passes
28%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction464530995safe399–530466–595865–1125safer382–547448–613830–1160actual544430974
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction69.6174.51safe65.40–73.8370.00–79.02safer64.10–75.1368.67–80.35
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4410.7922.23safe8.58–14.307.85–13.7416.43–28.03safer7.70–15.186.93–14.6514.63–29.84actual21.008.0029.00
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.704.33safe0.42–2.841.54–3.861.95–6.70safer0.07–3.181.20–4.201.28–7.37actual1.005.006.00
Yellow cards
50%
19%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.511.994.49safe1.45–3.560.87–3.112.32–6.67safer1.18–3.830.58–3.401.76–7.23actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.726.09safe1.96–4.791.16–4.273.12–9.06safer1.57–5.180.73–4.702.30–9.88actual2.001.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.14–2.06 0.00–2.32 | 2.00 | 2.30 1.44–3.16 1.19–3.41 | 3.00 | 3.40 1.58–5.22 1.07–5.73 | 5.00 | 17% 19% 64% |
| Shots on target | 3.49 1.63–5.34 1.13–5.84 | 3.00 | 6.45 4.74–8.15 4.27–8.62 | 4.00 | 9.93 6.37–13.50 5.40–14.46 | 7.00 | 13% 78% |
| Total shots | 10.12 6.42–13.83 5.39–14.86 | 11.00 | 15.83 12.45–19.21 11.52–20.14 | 20.00 | 25.96 18.87–33.04 16.91–35.00 | 31.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 6.68 4.17–9.20 3.30–10.06 | 7.00 | 10.21 7.91–12.51 7.11–13.31 | 15.00 | 16.90 12.08–21.71 10.42–23.37 | 22.00 | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 3.09 1.51–4.68 0.98–5.21 | 2.00 | 3.12 1.71–4.54 1.22–5.02 | 5.00 | 6.22 3.22–9.21 2.20–10.23 | 7.00 | 41% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 3.52 1.31–5.72 0.72–6.32 | 2.00 | 5.84 3.86–7.81 3.32–8.35 | 5.00 | 9.36 5.17–13.54 4.04–14.67 | 7.00 | 18% 72% |
| Possession % | 45.11 38.79–51.43 37.19–53.02 | 56.00 | 55.26 48.94–61.58 47.34–63.17 | 44.00 | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 464 399–530 382–547 | 544 | 530 466–595 448–613 | 430 | 995 865–1125 830–1160 | 974 | 28% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.61 65.40–73.83 64.10–75.13 | — | 74.51 70.00–79.02 68.67–80.35 | — | — | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.58–14.30 7.70–15.18 | 21.00 | 10.79 7.85–13.74 6.93–14.65 | 8.00 | 22.23 16.43–28.03 14.63–29.84 | 29.00 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.42–2.84 0.07–3.18 | 1.00 | 2.70 1.54–3.86 1.20–4.20 | 5.00 | 4.33 1.95–6.70 1.28–7.37 | 6.00 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 2.51 1.45–3.56 1.18–3.83 | 4.00 | 1.99 0.87–3.11 0.58–3.40 | 2.00 | 4.49 2.32–6.67 1.76–7.23 | 6.00 | 50% 19% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.96–4.79 1.57–5.18 | 2.00 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.70 | 1.00 | 6.09 3.12–9.06 2.30–9.88 | 3.00 | 52% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.