La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.870.993.85safe1.90–3.830.13–1.842.03–5.68safer1.65–4.080.00–2.071.55–6.16
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.993.6511.64safe6.13–9.861.91–5.398.04–15.25safer5.64–10.351.44–5.867.08–16.20
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction19.2010.2529.45safe15.27–23.126.69–13.8121.96–36.94safer14.18–24.225.73–14.7719.91–38.99
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction13.706.5620.25safe10.75–16.643.88–9.2414.63–25.88safer9.92–17.473.14–9.9713.06–27.44
Blocked shots
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.602.527.13safe2.72–6.490.87–4.183.59–10.66safer2.18–7.030.38–4.672.56–11.70
Corners
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.753.4211.17safe5.53–9.961.42–5.426.96–15.38safer4.96–10.530.89–5.965.85–16.49
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.1644.89safe48.37–61.9538.10–51.67safer46.70–63.6236.43–53.34
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction554444997safe486–621377–510863–1131safer468–639360–528828–1166
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction72.9171.88safe68.88–76.9467.56–76.20safer67.59–78.2366.25–77.51
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8412.9823.82safe8.00–13.6810.03–15.9218.04–29.60safer7.25–14.439.29–16.6716.53–31.11
Offsides
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.701.585.28safe2.54–4.860.49–2.673.02–7.53safer2.24–5.160.20–2.962.44–8.12
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.484.15safe0.62–2.721.35–3.611.97–6.33safer0.36–2.991.06–3.901.41–6.89
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.150.23safe0.00–0.240.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.390.00–0.470.00–0.86
GK saves
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction2.454.787.23safe1.01–3.893.22–6.334.23–10.22safer0.63–4.272.80–6.763.42–11.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.87 1.90–3.83 1.65–4.08 | 0.99 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 3.85 2.03–5.68 1.55–6.16 | 76% 14% |
| Shots on target | 7.99 6.13–9.86 5.64–10.35 | 3.65 1.91–5.39 1.44–5.86 | 11.64 8.04–15.25 7.08–16.20 | 87% |
| Total shots | 19.20 15.27–23.12 14.18–24.22 | 10.25 6.69–13.81 5.73–14.77 | 29.45 21.96–36.94 19.91–38.99 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 13.70 10.75–16.64 9.92–17.47 | 6.56 3.88–9.24 3.14–9.97 | 20.25 14.63–25.88 13.06–27.44 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 4.60 2.72–6.49 2.18–7.03 | 2.52 0.87–4.18 0.38–4.67 | 7.13 3.59–10.66 2.56–11.70 | 72% 16% |
| Corners | 7.75 5.53–9.96 4.96–10.53 | 3.42 1.42–5.42 0.89–5.96 | 11.17 6.96–15.38 5.85–16.49 | 88% |
| Possession % | 55.16 48.37–61.95 46.70–63.62 | 44.89 38.10–51.67 36.43–53.34 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 554 486–621 468–639 | 444 377–510 360–528 | 997 863–1131 828–1166 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.91 68.88–76.94 67.59–78.23 | 71.88 67.56–76.20 66.25–77.51 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 10.84 8.00–13.68 7.25–14.43 | 12.98 10.03–15.92 9.29–16.67 | 23.82 18.04–29.60 16.53–31.11 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 3.70 2.54–4.86 2.24–5.16 | 1.58 0.49–2.67 0.20–2.96 | 5.28 3.02–7.53 2.44–8.12 | 76% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.36–2.99 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 4.15 1.97–6.33 1.41–6.89 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.89 0.63–4.27 | 4.78 3.22–6.33 2.80–6.76 | 7.23 4.23–10.22 3.42–11.03 | 14% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.