La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.852.91safe0.10–2.030.99–2.701.09–4.73safer0.00–2.290.76–2.930.61–5.21
Shots on target
21%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.605.479.07safe1.74–5.463.73–7.215.46–12.67safer1.25–5.953.26–7.684.51–13.63
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1315.7226.85safe7.20–15.0512.16–19.2819.36–34.33safer6.11–16.1411.20–20.2417.31–36.38
Shots in box
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.6610.3316.99safe3.72–9.607.65–13.0111.37–22.61safer2.89–10.436.91–13.759.80–24.18
Blocked shots
33%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.606.59safe1.11–4.871.95–5.253.06–10.13safer0.57–5.421.45–5.742.02–11.16
Corners
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.165.8410.00safe1.95–6.373.84–7.845.79–14.21safer1.37–6.953.30–8.374.68–15.32
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.6760.67safe32.88–46.4653.88–67.45safer31.21–48.1352.21–69.12
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction372557929safe305–439490–623795–1062safer286–457473–641759–1098
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction65.5076.22safe61.47–69.5371.90–80.54safer60.18–70.8270.59–81.85
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9411.9522.89safe8.10–13.789.01–14.9017.11–28.67safer7.35–14.538.26–15.6515.60–30.18
Offsides
47%
19%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.562.194.76safe1.40–3.721.10–3.282.51–7.01safer1.10–4.030.81–3.571.92–7.60
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.893.76safe0.82–2.910.77–3.021.58–5.93safer0.55–3.170.48–3.311.03–6.48
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.415.95safe2.11–4.980.85–3.962.96–8.94safer1.72–5.370.43–4.392.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.03 0.00–2.29 | 1.85 0.99–2.70 0.76–2.93 | 2.91 1.09–4.73 0.61–5.21 | 22% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.74–5.46 1.25–5.95 | 5.47 3.73–7.21 3.26–7.68 | 9.07 5.46–12.67 4.51–13.63 | 21% 67% |
| Total shots | 11.13 7.20–15.05 6.11–16.14 | 15.72 12.16–19.28 11.20–20.24 | 26.85 19.36–34.33 17.31–36.38 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 6.66 3.72–9.60 2.89–10.43 | 10.33 7.65–13.01 6.91–13.75 | 16.99 11.37–22.61 9.80–24.18 | 15% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 1.11–4.87 0.57–5.42 | 3.60 1.95–5.25 1.45–5.74 | 6.59 3.06–10.13 2.02–11.16 | 33% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.16 1.95–6.37 1.37–6.95 | 5.84 3.84–7.84 3.30–8.37 | 10.00 5.79–14.21 4.68–15.32 | 24% 64% |
| Possession % | 39.67 32.88–46.46 31.21–48.13 | 60.67 53.88–67.45 52.21–69.12 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 372 305–439 286–457 | 557 490–623 473–641 | 929 795–1062 759–1098 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.50 61.47–69.53 60.18–70.82 | 76.22 71.90–80.54 70.59–81.85 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 10.94 8.10–13.78 7.35–14.53 | 11.95 9.01–14.90 8.26–15.65 | 22.89 17.11–28.67 15.60–30.18 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.56 1.40–3.72 1.10–4.03 | 2.19 1.10–3.28 0.81–3.57 | 4.76 2.51–7.01 1.92–7.60 | 47% 19% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.82–2.91 0.55–3.17 | 1.89 0.77–3.02 0.48–3.31 | 3.76 1.58–5.93 1.03–6.48 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.11–4.98 1.72–5.37 | 2.41 0.85–3.96 0.43–4.39 | 5.95 2.96–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 60% 15% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.