La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · Spain
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.722.88safe0.20–2.130.86–2.571.06–4.70safer0.00–2.390.61–2.820.55–5.21actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.809.15safe2.50–6.213.09–6.505.59–12.72safer2.00–6.712.62–6.974.62–13.69actual1.007.008.00
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9313.6826.62safe9.23–16.6410.31–17.0619.54–33.70safer8.20–17.679.38–17.9917.58–35.66actual5.0016.0021.00
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.979.2017.17safe5.45–10.486.90–11.5012.35–21.99safer4.59–11.356.10–12.3010.69–23.65actual4.0012.0016.00
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.997.52safe1.95–5.122.57–5.404.53–10.52safer1.42–5.652.09–5.893.50–11.54actual0.004.004.00
Corners
41%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction5.135.3910.52safe2.93–7.343.41–7.376.34–14.71safer2.33–7.932.87–7.915.21–15.84actual4.008.0012.00
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction45.3752.71safe39.05–51.6946.39–59.02safer37.46–53.2844.79–60.62actual37.0063.00
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction444518962safe379–509454–583832–1092safer361–527436–600797–1127actual347600947
Pass accuracy %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction70.6077.24safe66.38–74.8272.73–81.74safer65.08–76.1271.40–83.08
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3112.0224.33safe9.46–15.179.07–14.9718.53–30.13safer8.57–16.058.16–15.8816.73–31.94actual17.0010.0027.00
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.274.23safe0.75–3.171.11–3.431.86–6.60safer0.41–3.520.77–3.761.18–7.28actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.154.35safe1.15–3.261.03–3.272.18–6.53safer0.88–3.530.74–3.561.61–7.09actual5.001.006.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.715.76safe1.64–4.471.15–4.262.79–8.73safer1.25–4.850.72–4.691.97–9.55actual3.000.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.20–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 1.00 | 1.72 0.86–2.57 0.61–2.82 | 3.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 4.00 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.21 2.00–6.71 | 1.00 | 4.80 3.09–6.50 2.62–6.97 | 7.00 | 9.15 5.59–12.72 4.62–13.69 | 8.00 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.93 9.23–16.64 8.20–17.67 | 5.00 | 13.68 10.31–17.06 9.38–17.99 | 16.00 | 26.62 19.54–33.70 17.58–35.66 | 21.00 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 7.97 5.45–10.48 4.59–11.35 | 4.00 | 9.20 6.90–11.50 6.10–12.30 | 12.00 | 17.17 12.35–21.99 10.69–23.65 | 16.00 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.95–5.12 1.42–5.65 | 0.00 | 3.99 2.57–5.40 2.09–5.89 | 4.00 | 7.52 4.53–10.52 3.50–11.54 | 4.00 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.93–7.34 2.33–7.93 | 4.00 | 5.39 3.41–7.37 2.87–7.91 | 8.00 | 10.52 6.34–14.71 5.21–15.84 | 12.00 | 41% 47% |
| Possession % | 45.37 39.05–51.69 37.46–53.28 | 37.00 | 52.71 46.39–59.02 44.79–60.62 | 63.00 | — | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 444 379–509 361–527 | 347 | 518 454–583 436–600 | 600 | 962 832–1092 797–1127 | 947 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.60 66.38–74.82 65.08–76.12 | — | 77.24 72.73–81.74 71.40–83.08 | — | — | — | 19% 78% |
| Fouls | 12.31 9.46–15.17 8.57–16.05 | 17.00 | 12.02 9.07–14.97 8.16–15.88 | 10.00 | 24.33 18.53–30.13 16.73–31.94 | 27.00 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.75–3.17 0.41–3.52 | 1.00 | 2.27 1.11–3.43 0.77–3.76 | 3.00 | 4.23 1.86–6.60 1.18–7.28 | 4.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.15–3.26 0.88–3.53 | 5.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 1.00 | 4.35 2.18–6.53 1.61–7.09 | 6.00 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.64–4.47 1.25–4.85 | 3.00 | 2.71 1.15–4.26 0.72–4.69 | 0.00 | 5.76 2.79–8.73 1.97–9.55 | 3.00 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+