La Liga·Regular Season - 6·
La Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos · Spain
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.152.58safe0.46–2.380.30–2.010.75–4.40safer0.20–2.640.05–2.260.25–4.91actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.588.15safe2.71–6.421.88–5.294.58–11.71safer2.21–6.921.41–5.763.62–12.68actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3710.8824.24safe9.66–17.077.50–14.2517.16–31.32safer8.63–18.106.57–15.1915.20–33.29actual16.0019.0035.00
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.077.6515.72safe5.55–10.585.35–9.9510.90–20.54safer4.69–11.454.55–10.759.24–22.20actual9.0012.0021.00
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.742.916.66safe2.16–5.331.50–4.333.66–9.66safer1.62–5.861.01–4.822.64–10.68actual4.007.0011.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.544.149.68safe3.34–7.752.16–6.125.50–13.86safer2.74–8.341.62–6.664.36–15.00actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.9848.18safe45.66–58.3041.86–54.50safer44.07–59.8940.27–56.10actual54.0046.00
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction434387821safe369–499322–452691–951safer351–517305–469656–986actual450361811
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction71.3468.74safe67.12–75.5564.23–73.25safer65.82–76.8562.90–74.58
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9612.3224.28safe9.10–14.829.37–15.2618.47–30.08safer8.22–15.708.45–16.1816.67–31.88actual10.0015.0025.00
Offsides
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.843.30safe0.25–2.670.68–3.010.93–5.67safer0.00–3.010.35–3.340.25–6.35actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.174.25safe1.02–3.131.05–3.292.07–6.42safer0.75–3.410.76–3.581.51–6.99actual5.001.006.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.85actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.745.10safe0.94–3.771.19–4.292.13–8.06safer0.55–4.160.75–4.731.31–8.89actual3.000.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.38 0.20–2.64 | 2.00 | 1.15 0.30–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 1.00 | 2.58 0.75–4.40 0.25–4.91 | 3.00 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.71–6.42 2.21–6.92 | 2.00 | 3.58 1.88–5.29 1.41–5.76 | 5.00 | 8.15 4.58–11.71 3.62–12.68 | 7.00 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.37 9.66–17.07 8.63–18.10 | 16.00 | 10.88 7.50–14.25 6.57–15.19 | 19.00 | 24.24 17.16–31.32 15.20–33.29 | 35.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.07 5.55–10.58 4.69–11.45 | 9.00 | 7.65 5.35–9.95 4.55–10.75 | 12.00 | 15.72 10.90–20.54 9.24–22.20 | 21.00 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 2.16–5.33 1.62–5.86 | 4.00 | 2.91 1.50–4.33 1.01–4.82 | 7.00 | 6.66 3.66–9.66 2.64–10.68 | 11.00 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.34–7.75 2.74–8.34 | 3.00 | 4.14 2.16–6.12 1.62–6.66 | 5.00 | 9.68 5.50–13.86 4.36–15.00 | 8.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.98 45.66–58.30 44.07–59.89 | 54.00 | 48.18 41.86–54.50 40.27–56.10 | 46.00 | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 434 369–499 351–517 | 450 | 387 322–452 305–469 | 361 | 821 691–951 656–986 | 811 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.34 67.12–75.55 65.82–76.85 | — | 68.74 64.23–73.25 62.90–74.58 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.10–14.82 8.22–15.70 | 10.00 | 12.32 9.37–15.26 8.45–16.18 | 15.00 | 24.28 18.47–30.08 16.67–31.88 | 25.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.25–2.67 0.00–3.01 | 0.00 | 1.84 0.68–3.01 0.35–3.34 | 2.00 | 3.30 0.93–5.67 0.25–6.35 | 2.00 | 31% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.02–3.13 0.75–3.41 | 5.00 | 2.17 1.05–3.29 0.76–3.58 | 1.00 | 4.25 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.99 | 6.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 1.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.94–3.77 0.55–4.16 | 3.00 | 2.74 1.19–4.29 0.75–4.73 | 0.00 | 5.10 2.13–8.06 1.31–8.89 | 3.00 | 34% 18% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.