La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.212.64safe0.46–2.400.36–2.070.82–4.46safer0.21–2.650.13–2.290.34–4.94
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.198.78safe2.72–6.452.45–5.935.17–12.38safer2.23–6.941.98–6.404.21–13.34
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2113.3127.52safe10.29–18.149.75–16.8720.04–35.01safer9.20–19.238.79–17.8317.99–37.06
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.777.9817.75safe6.83–12.725.29–10.6612.13–23.37safer6.00–13.554.56–11.3910.56–24.94
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.453.708.15safe2.57–6.332.05–5.354.62–11.69safer2.02–6.881.56–5.853.58–12.72
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.044.3710.41safe3.82–8.252.37–6.376.19–14.62safer3.25–8.821.84–6.905.09–15.73
Possession %
48%
48%
homeawayprediction50.1050.04safe43.31–56.8943.25–56.82safer41.64–58.5641.58–58.49
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction423398821safe356–490332–465687–955safer337–508314–482652–990
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction64.2068.19safe60.17–68.2363.87–72.52safer58.88–69.5262.56–73.83
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5713.1625.73safe9.73–15.4010.22–16.1019.95–31.51safer8.97–16.169.47–16.8518.44–33.01
Offsides
56%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.263.32safe0.90–3.220.16–2.351.07–5.57safer0.60–3.530.00–2.640.48–6.16
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.414.35safe0.89–2.991.28–3.542.17–6.53safer0.62–3.250.99–3.831.62–7.09
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.955.80safe1.42–4.291.39–4.502.81–8.79safer1.03–4.680.97–4.932.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.29 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.72–6.45 2.23–6.94 | 4.19 2.45–5.93 1.98–6.40 | 8.78 5.17–12.38 4.21–13.34 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.21 10.29–18.14 9.20–19.23 | 13.31 9.75–16.87 8.79–17.83 | 27.52 20.04–35.01 17.99–37.06 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 9.77 6.83–12.72 6.00–13.55 | 7.98 5.29–10.66 4.56–11.39 | 17.75 12.13–23.37 10.56–24.94 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.45 2.57–6.33 2.02–6.88 | 3.70 2.05–5.35 1.56–5.85 | 8.15 4.62–11.69 3.58–12.72 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 6.04 3.82–8.25 3.25–8.82 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.90 | 10.41 6.19–14.62 5.09–15.73 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 50.10 43.31–56.89 41.64–58.56 | 50.04 43.25–56.82 41.58–58.49 | — | 48% 48% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 337–508 | 398 332–465 314–482 | 821 687–955 652–990 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.20 60.17–68.23 58.88–69.52 | 68.19 63.87–72.52 62.56–73.83 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.57 9.73–15.40 8.97–16.16 | 13.16 10.22–16.10 9.47–16.85 | 25.73 19.95–31.51 18.44–33.01 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.53 | 1.26 0.16–2.35 0.00–2.64 | 3.32 1.07–5.57 0.48–6.16 | 56% 21% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.62–3.25 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.35 2.17–6.53 1.62–7.09 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 2.95 1.39–4.50 0.97–4.93 | 5.80 2.81–8.79 2.00–9.61 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.