La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Victor Garcia Verdura · Spain
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.660.922.58safe0.69–2.620.06–1.780.75–4.40safer0.43–2.880.00–2.030.25–4.90actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.472.988.45safe3.61–7.321.28–4.694.89–12.01safer3.11–7.820.81–5.163.92–12.98actual6.000.006.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction15.079.4124.48safe11.37–18.786.03–12.7817.40–31.56safer10.34–19.815.10–13.7115.43–33.52actual23.002.0025.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.185.9516.13safe7.67–12.703.64–8.2511.31–20.95safer6.80–13.562.85–9.049.65–22.61actual8.000.008.00
Blocked shots
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.456.40safe2.36–5.531.04–3.873.40–9.40safer1.83–6.060.55–4.352.38–10.42actual8.000.008.00
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.733.5910.32safe4.53–8.941.61–5.576.14–14.51safer3.93–9.531.08–6.115.01–15.64actual5.001.006.00
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction62.3339.14safe56.02–68.6532.82–45.46safer54.42–70.2531.22–47.06actual69.0031.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction511314825safe446–576250–379695–955safer428–594232–396660–990actual620278898
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction73.4262.88safe69.20–77.6358.37–67.38safer67.90–78.9357.04–68.71
Fouls
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4314.5224.95safe7.57–13.2811.57–17.4619.14–30.75safer6.69–14.1710.65–18.3817.34–32.55actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
20%
15%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.073.485.55safe0.86–3.282.32–4.653.18–7.93safer0.52–3.621.99–4.982.50–8.60actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
28%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.584.45safe0.81–2.921.46–3.702.27–6.62safer0.54–3.191.17–3.991.71–7.18actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.243.335.57safe0.83–3.651.78–4.892.60–8.54safer0.44–4.041.35–5.321.78–9.36actual0.006.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.69–2.62 0.43–2.88 | 0.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 0.00 | 2.58 0.75–4.40 0.25–4.90 | 0.00 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.47 3.61–7.32 3.11–7.82 | 6.00 | 2.98 1.28–4.69 0.81–5.16 | 0.00 | 8.45 4.89–12.01 3.92–12.98 | 6.00 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 15.07 11.37–18.78 10.34–19.81 | 23.00 | 9.41 6.03–12.78 5.10–13.71 | 2.00 | 24.48 17.40–31.56 15.43–33.52 | 25.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 10.18 7.67–12.70 6.80–13.56 | 8.00 | 5.95 3.64–8.25 2.85–9.04 | 0.00 | 16.13 11.31–20.95 9.65–22.61 | 8.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.36–5.53 1.83–6.06 | 8.00 | 2.45 1.04–3.87 0.55–4.35 | 0.00 | 6.40 3.40–9.40 2.38–10.42 | 8.00 | 65% 14% 21% |
| Corners | 6.73 4.53–8.94 3.93–9.53 | 5.00 | 3.59 1.61–5.57 1.08–6.11 | 1.00 | 10.32 6.14–14.51 5.01–15.64 | 6.00 | 80% |
| Possession % | 62.33 56.02–68.65 54.42–70.25 | 69.00 | 39.14 32.82–45.46 31.22–47.06 | 31.00 | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 511 446–576 428–594 | 620 | 314 250–379 232–396 | 278 | 825 695–955 660–990 | 898 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.42 69.20–77.63 67.90–78.93 | — | 62.88 58.37–67.38 57.04–68.71 | — | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.43 7.57–13.28 6.69–14.17 | 14.00 | 14.52 11.57–17.46 10.65–18.38 | 13.00 | 24.95 19.14–30.75 17.34–32.55 | 27.00 | 18% 76% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.86–3.28 0.52–3.62 | 0.00 | 3.48 2.32–4.65 1.99–4.98 | 3.00 | 5.55 3.18–7.93 2.50–8.60 | 3.00 | 20% 15% 65% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.81–2.92 0.54–3.19 | 2.00 | 2.58 1.46–3.70 1.17–3.99 | 0.00 | 4.45 2.27–6.62 1.71–7.18 | 2.00 | 28% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.83–3.65 0.44–4.04 | 0.00 | 3.33 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.32 | 6.00 | 5.57 2.60–8.54 1.78–9.36 | 6.00 | 25% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.