La Liga·Regular Season - 27·
La Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.702.68safe0.01–1.940.84–2.550.85–4.50safer0.00–2.200.62–2.780.37–4.98
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.424.868.28safe1.56–5.293.11–6.604.68–11.89safer1.07–5.782.65–7.063.72–12.84
Total shots
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4113.7625.17safe7.48–15.3310.20–17.3217.68–32.65safer6.39–16.429.24–18.2815.63–34.70
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.128.8215.94safe4.18–10.066.14–11.5010.32–21.56safer3.35–10.895.40–12.248.75–23.13
Blocked shots
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.916.43safe0.64–4.412.25–5.562.90–9.97safer0.10–4.951.76–6.051.86–11.01
Corners
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.045.569.60safe1.82–6.253.56–7.565.39–13.81safer1.25–6.823.03–8.104.28–14.92
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction39.7960.20safe33.00–46.5853.42–66.99safer31.33–48.2551.75–68.66
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction345525871safe278–413459–592737–1004safer260–431441–609701–1040
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction63.2274.62safe59.19–67.2570.30–78.95safer57.90–68.5468.99–80.26
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7812.1924.97safe9.94–15.629.25–15.1319.19–30.75safer9.18–16.378.50–15.8817.68–32.26
Offsides
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.105.00safe1.74–4.061.01–3.192.75–7.26safer1.44–4.360.72–3.482.16–7.85
Yellow cards
44%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.104.41safe1.26–3.350.98–3.232.23–6.59safer0.99–3.620.68–3.521.67–7.14
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
53%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.435.52safe1.66–4.530.87–3.982.53–8.51safer1.27–4.920.45–4.411.72–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.94 0.00–2.20 | 1.70 0.84–2.55 0.62–2.78 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 22% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.42 1.56–5.29 1.07–5.78 | 4.86 3.11–6.60 2.65–7.06 | 8.28 4.68–11.89 3.72–12.84 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.41 7.48–15.33 6.39–16.42 | 13.76 10.20–17.32 9.24–18.28 | 25.17 17.68–32.65 15.63–34.70 | 28% 64% |
| Shots in box | 7.12 4.18–10.06 3.35–10.89 | 8.82 6.14–11.50 5.40–12.24 | 15.94 10.32–21.56 8.75–23.13 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 2.53 0.64–4.41 0.10–4.95 | 3.91 2.25–5.56 1.76–6.05 | 6.43 2.90–9.97 1.86–11.01 | 23% 14% 63% |
| Corners | 4.04 1.82–6.25 1.25–6.82 | 5.56 3.56–7.56 3.03–8.10 | 9.60 5.39–13.81 4.28–14.92 | 25% 63% |
| Possession % | 39.79 33.00–46.58 31.33–48.25 | 60.20 53.42–66.99 51.75–68.66 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 345 278–413 260–431 | 525 459–592 441–609 | 871 737–1004 701–1040 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.22 59.19–67.25 57.90–68.54 | 74.62 70.30–78.95 68.99–80.26 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 12.78 9.94–15.62 9.18–16.37 | 12.19 9.25–15.13 8.50–15.88 | 24.97 19.19–30.75 17.68–32.26 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.90 1.74–4.06 1.44–4.36 | 2.10 1.01–3.19 0.72–3.48 | 5.00 2.75–7.26 2.16–7.85 | 55% 17% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.26–3.35 0.99–3.62 | 2.10 0.98–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.67–7.14 | 44% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.66–4.53 1.27–4.92 | 2.43 0.87–3.98 0.45–4.41 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.72–9.32 | 53% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.