La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · Spain
Goals
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.423.01safe0.63–2.550.56–2.281.18–4.83safer0.37–2.810.31–2.520.68–5.34actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.469.58safe3.26–6.972.76–6.176.02–13.14safer2.76–7.472.29–6.645.05–14.11actual9.003.0012.00
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2711.9426.21safe10.56–17.978.56–15.3219.12–33.29safer9.53–19.007.63–16.2517.16–35.25actual18.008.0026.00
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.837.6817.51safe7.32–12.355.38–9.9812.69–22.33safer6.45–13.214.58–10.7811.03–23.99actual13.003.0016.00
Blocked shots
52%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.507.67safe2.59–5.752.09–4.924.67–10.67safer2.05–6.291.60–5.403.65–11.69actual5.001.006.00
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.439.86safe3.22–7.632.45–6.415.67–14.04safer2.63–8.231.91–6.954.54–15.17actual3.001.004.00
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.7551.10safe43.43–56.0744.78–57.42safer41.83–57.6643.18–59.02actual61.0039.00
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5235071030safe457–588442–572900–1159safer440–605425–589864–1195actual6183941012
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction77.7273.07safe73.50–81.9468.57–77.58safer72.20–83.2467.24–78.91
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9111.0722.98safe9.06–14.778.12–14.0117.18–28.78safer8.17–15.657.20–14.9315.37–30.59actual19.006.0025.00
Offsides
40%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.833.69safe0.65–3.070.67–2.991.32–6.06safer0.30–3.410.34–3.330.64–6.74actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
42%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.354.76safe1.36–3.471.23–3.472.58–6.93safer1.08–3.740.94–3.762.02–7.50actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.446.17safe1.31–4.141.89–4.993.20–9.14safer0.92–4.531.45–5.432.38–9.96actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.55 0.37–2.81 | 2.00 | 1.42 0.56–2.28 0.31–2.52 | 1.00 | 3.01 1.18–4.83 0.68–5.34 | 3.00 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.26–6.97 2.76–7.47 | 9.00 | 4.46 2.76–6.17 2.29–6.64 | 3.00 | 9.58 6.02–13.14 5.05–14.11 | 12.00 | 52% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.27 10.56–17.97 9.53–19.00 | 18.00 | 11.94 8.56–15.32 7.63–16.25 | 8.00 | 26.21 19.12–33.29 17.16–35.25 | 26.00 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.83 7.32–12.35 6.45–13.21 | 13.00 | 7.68 5.38–9.98 4.58–10.78 | 3.00 | 17.51 12.69–22.33 11.03–23.99 | 16.00 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.59–5.75 2.05–6.29 | 5.00 | 3.50 2.09–4.92 1.60–5.40 | 1.00 | 7.67 4.67–10.67 3.65–11.69 | 6.00 | 52% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.63 2.63–8.23 | 3.00 | 4.43 2.45–6.41 1.91–6.95 | 1.00 | 9.86 5.67–14.04 4.54–15.17 | 4.00 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 49.75 43.43–56.07 41.83–57.66 | 61.00 | 51.10 44.78–57.42 43.18–59.02 | 39.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 523 457–588 440–605 | 618 | 507 442–572 425–589 | 394 | 1030 900–1159 864–1195 | 1012 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.72 73.50–81.94 72.20–83.24 | — | 73.07 68.57–77.58 67.24–78.91 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.06–14.77 8.17–15.65 | 19.00 | 11.07 8.12–14.01 7.20–14.93 | 6.00 | 22.98 17.18–28.78 15.37–30.59 | 25.00 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.65–3.07 0.30–3.41 | 2.00 | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.34–3.33 | 2.00 | 3.69 1.32–6.06 0.64–6.74 | 4.00 | 40% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.41 1.36–3.47 1.08–3.74 | 2.00 | 2.35 1.23–3.47 0.94–3.76 | 2.00 | 4.76 2.58–6.93 2.02–7.50 | 4.00 | 42% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 1.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.31–4.14 0.92–4.53 | 2.00 | 3.44 1.89–4.99 1.45–5.43 | 5.00 | 6.17 3.20–9.14 2.38–9.96 | 7.00 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.