La Liga·Regular Season - 30·
La Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.342.95safe0.64–2.580.48–2.191.13–4.77safer0.39–2.830.26–2.420.65–5.25
Shots on target
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.769.96safe3.34–7.063.02–6.516.36–13.57safer2.85–7.552.56–6.975.40–14.52
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1713.5927.76safe10.25–18.1010.03–17.1520.28–35.25safer9.16–19.199.07–18.1118.23–37.30
Shots in box
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction9.409.1618.56safe6.46–12.356.48–11.8412.94–24.18safer5.63–13.175.74–12.5811.37–25.75
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.823.437.24safe1.94–5.701.77–5.083.71–10.78safer1.39–6.241.28–5.572.67–11.82
Corners
45%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.9810.03safe2.84–7.262.97–6.985.81–14.24safer2.26–7.842.44–7.514.71–15.35
Possession %
53%
43%
homeawayprediction51.7549.64safe44.96–58.5442.85–56.42safer43.29–60.2141.18–58.09
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction516484999safe448–583417–550865–1133safer430–601400–568830–1169
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction71.0175.51safe66.98–75.0471.19–79.83safer65.69–76.3469.88–81.14
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0413.0123.05safe7.20–12.8810.06–15.9517.27–28.83safer6.45–13.649.32–16.7015.76–30.34
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.803.65safe0.70–3.020.70–2.891.40–5.91safer0.40–3.320.41–3.180.81–6.50
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.354.12safe0.72–2.821.22–3.481.94–6.29safer0.45–3.080.93–3.771.38–6.85
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
41%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.486.87safe1.95–4.821.93–5.043.88–9.86safer1.56–5.211.50–5.473.07–10.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.58 0.39–2.83 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.26–2.42 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.65–5.25 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.20 3.34–7.06 2.85–7.55 | 4.76 3.02–6.51 2.56–6.97 | 9.96 6.36–13.57 5.40–14.52 | 49% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.17 10.25–18.10 9.16–19.19 | 13.59 10.03–17.15 9.07–18.11 | 27.76 20.28–35.25 18.23–37.30 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.40 6.46–12.35 5.63–13.17 | 9.16 6.48–11.84 5.74–12.58 | 18.56 12.94–24.18 11.37–25.75 | 48% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.94–5.70 1.39–6.24 | 3.43 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 7.24 3.71–10.78 2.67–11.82 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.26 2.26–7.84 | 4.98 2.97–6.98 2.44–7.51 | 10.03 5.81–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 45% 43% |
| Possession % | 51.75 44.96–58.54 43.29–60.21 | 49.64 42.85–56.42 41.18–58.09 | — | 53% 43% |
| Passes | 516 448–583 430–601 | 484 417–550 400–568 | 999 865–1133 830–1169 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.01 66.98–75.04 65.69–76.34 | 75.51 71.19–79.83 69.88–81.14 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 10.04 7.20–12.88 6.45–13.64 | 13.01 10.06–15.95 9.32–16.70 | 23.05 17.27–28.83 15.76–30.34 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.80 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.18 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.50 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.45–3.08 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.12 1.94–6.29 1.38–6.85 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.39 1.95–4.82 1.56–5.21 | 3.48 1.93–5.04 1.50–5.47 | 6.87 3.88–9.86 3.07–10.68 | 41% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.