La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · Spain
Goals
63%
21%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.960.882.84safe1.00–2.920.02–1.741.02–4.66safer0.74–3.180.00–1.980.51–5.17actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.822.518.34safe3.97–7.680.80–4.224.77–11.90safer3.47–8.180.34–4.693.80–12.87actual9.005.0014.00
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction16.707.7524.45safe13.00–20.404.37–11.1317.37–31.53safer11.97–21.443.44–12.0615.41–33.49actual13.0011.0024.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction11.225.4216.64safe8.70–13.733.12–7.7211.82–21.45safer7.84–14.602.32–8.5210.16–23.12actual8.006.0014.00
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.697.01safe2.73–5.901.28–4.114.01–10.01safer2.20–6.440.79–4.592.99–11.03actual2.002.004.00
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.273.2310.50safe5.07–9.481.25–5.206.32–14.68safer4.47–10.070.71–5.745.18–15.82actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
81%
15%
homeawayprediction57.7542.58safe51.43–64.0636.26–48.90safer49.83–65.6634.66–50.50actual41.0059.00
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction561426987safe496–626362–491857–1117safer478–644344–508822–1152actual4276061033
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction76.0069.16safe71.78–80.2164.65–73.67safer70.48–81.5263.32–75.00
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9211.6722.58safe8.06–13.778.72–14.6116.78–28.39safer7.17–14.667.80–15.5314.98–30.19actual13.0011.0024.00
Offsides
65%
17%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.601.323.92safe1.39–3.810.16–2.481.55–6.29safer1.05–4.160.00–2.810.87–6.97actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.414.05safe0.59–2.701.29–3.531.88–6.23safer0.32–2.971.00–3.821.32–6.79actual2.005.007.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.460.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
15%
14%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.673.445.11safe0.26–3.081.89–5.002.15–8.08safer0.00–3.471.46–5.431.32–8.90actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 1.00–2.92 0.74–3.18 | 5.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.98 | 0.00 | 2.84 1.02–4.66 0.51–5.17 | 5.00 | 63% 21% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.82 3.97–7.68 3.47–8.18 | 9.00 | 2.51 0.80–4.22 0.34–4.69 | 5.00 | 8.34 4.77–11.90 3.80–12.87 | 14.00 | 84% |
| Total shots | 16.70 13.00–20.40 11.97–21.44 | 13.00 | 7.75 4.37–11.13 3.44–12.06 | 11.00 | 24.45 17.37–31.53 15.41–33.49 | 24.00 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 11.22 8.70–13.73 7.84–14.60 | 8.00 | 5.42 3.12–7.72 2.32–8.52 | 6.00 | 16.64 11.82–21.45 10.16–23.12 | 14.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.73–5.90 2.20–6.44 | 2.00 | 2.69 1.28–4.11 0.79–4.59 | 2.00 | 7.01 4.01–10.01 2.99–11.03 | 4.00 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 7.27 5.07–9.48 4.47–10.07 | 3.00 | 3.23 1.25–5.20 0.71–5.74 | 3.00 | 10.50 6.32–14.68 5.18–15.82 | 6.00 | 87% |
| Possession % | 57.75 51.43–64.06 49.83–65.66 | 41.00 | 42.58 36.26–48.90 34.66–50.50 | 59.00 | — | — | 81% 15% |
| Passes | 561 496–626 478–644 | 427 | 426 362–491 344–508 | 606 | 987 857–1117 822–1152 | 1033 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.00 71.78–80.21 70.48–81.52 | — | 69.16 64.65–73.67 63.32–75.00 | — | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 10.92 8.06–13.77 7.17–14.66 | 13.00 | 11.67 8.72–14.61 7.80–15.53 | 11.00 | 22.58 16.78–28.39 14.98–30.19 | 24.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.60 1.39–3.81 1.05–4.16 | 3.00 | 1.32 0.16–2.48 0.00–2.81 | 1.00 | 3.92 1.55–6.29 0.87–6.97 | 4.00 | 65% 17% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.70 0.32–2.97 | 2.00 | 2.41 1.29–3.53 1.00–3.82 | 5.00 | 4.05 1.88–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 7.00 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 1.67 0.26–3.08 0.00–3.47 | 5.00 | 3.44 1.89–5.00 1.46–5.43 | 4.00 | 5.11 2.15–8.08 1.32–8.90 | 9.00 | 15% 14% 71% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+