La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: César Soto Grado · Spain
Goals
21%
24%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.951.682.63safe0.00–1.910.82–2.540.81–4.45safer0.00–2.170.58–2.790.30–4.96actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.605.559.16safe1.75–5.463.85–7.265.60–12.72safer1.25–5.963.38–7.734.63–13.69actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0615.5325.58safe6.35–13.7612.15–18.9018.50–32.66safer5.32–14.7911.22–19.8316.54–34.63actual23.0011.0034.00
Shots in box
15%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8010.6917.48safe4.28–9.318.38–12.9912.67–22.30safer3.42–10.187.59–13.7811.01–23.96actual17.007.0024.00
Blocked shots
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.826.65safe1.25–4.412.41–5.243.65–9.65safer0.71–4.951.92–5.722.63–10.67actual8.004.0012.00
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.355.529.88safe2.15–6.563.55–7.505.70–14.06safer1.55–7.153.01–8.044.56–15.20actual11.005.0016.00
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction45.7352.79safe39.41–52.0546.48–59.11safer37.82–53.6444.88–60.71actual43.0057.00
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction4725511023safe406–537487–616893–1153safer389–555469–633858–1188actual419576995
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction72.9275.25safe68.71–77.1470.74–79.75safer67.41–78.4469.41–81.08
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4710.7822.26safe8.62–14.337.84–13.7316.45–28.06safer7.73–15.216.92–14.6514.65–29.86actual6.009.0015.00
Offsides
54%
18%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.601.894.49safe1.39–3.810.72–3.052.12–6.86safer1.05–4.150.39–3.381.44–7.54actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
52%
18%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.631.984.61safe1.57–3.680.86–3.102.43–6.79safer1.30–3.950.57–3.391.87–7.35actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
56%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.375.62safe1.84–4.670.81–3.922.66–8.59safer1.45–5.060.38–4.351.83–9.41actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.95 0.00–1.91 0.00–2.17 | 1.00 | 1.68 0.82–2.54 0.58–2.79 | 1.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.30–4.96 | 2.00 | 21% 24% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.75–5.46 1.25–5.96 | 7.00 | 5.55 3.85–7.26 3.38–7.73 | 4.00 | 9.16 5.60–12.72 4.63–13.69 | 11.00 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 10.06 6.35–13.76 5.32–14.79 | 23.00 | 15.53 12.15–18.90 11.22–19.83 | 11.00 | 25.58 18.50–32.66 16.54–34.63 | 34.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 6.80 4.28–9.31 3.42–10.18 | 17.00 | 10.69 8.38–12.99 7.59–13.78 | 7.00 | 17.48 12.67–22.30 11.01–23.96 | 24.00 | 15% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 2.83 1.25–4.41 0.71–4.95 | 8.00 | 3.82 2.41–5.24 1.92–5.72 | 4.00 | 6.65 3.65–9.65 2.63–10.67 | 12.00 | 28% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 4.35 2.15–6.56 1.55–7.15 | 11.00 | 5.52 3.55–7.50 3.01–8.04 | 5.00 | 9.88 5.70–14.06 4.56–15.20 | 16.00 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 45.73 39.41–52.05 37.82–53.64 | 43.00 | 52.79 46.48–59.11 44.88–60.71 | 57.00 | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 472 406–537 389–555 | 419 | 551 487–616 469–633 | 576 | 1023 893–1153 858–1188 | 995 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.92 68.71–77.14 67.41–78.44 | — | 75.25 70.74–79.75 69.41–81.08 | — | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 11.47 8.62–14.33 7.73–15.21 | 6.00 | 10.78 7.84–13.73 6.92–14.65 | 9.00 | 22.26 16.45–28.06 14.65–29.86 | 15.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.60 1.39–3.81 1.05–4.15 | 4.00 | 1.89 0.72–3.05 0.39–3.38 | 0.00 | 4.49 2.12–6.86 1.44–7.54 | 4.00 | 54% 18% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.63 1.57–3.68 1.30–3.95 | 1.00 | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | 1.00 | 4.61 2.43–6.79 1.87–7.35 | 2.00 | 52% 18% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.84–4.67 1.45–5.06 | 2.00 | 2.37 0.81–3.92 0.38–4.35 | 6.00 | 5.62 2.66–8.59 1.83–9.41 | 8.00 | 56% 16% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+