Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban · Spain
Goals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.092.51safe0.45–2.370.23–1.950.68–4.33safer0.19–2.630.00–2.200.18–4.83actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.733.938.66safe2.87–6.582.22–5.645.10–12.22safer2.37–7.081.75–6.114.13–13.19actual4.006.0010.00
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0211.7924.81safe9.32–16.728.42–15.1717.73–31.89safer8.28–17.757.49–16.1015.77–33.86actual23.009.0032.00
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.546.7515.29safe6.02–11.054.45–9.0510.47–20.11safer5.16–11.923.66–9.858.81–21.77actual13.006.0019.00
Blocked shots
45%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.433.276.71safe1.85–5.021.86–4.693.71–9.71safer1.31–5.551.37–5.172.69–10.73actual5.001.006.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.764.4410.20safe3.55–7.972.46–6.426.01–14.38safer2.96–8.561.92–6.954.88–15.51actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.2955.72safe36.97–49.6149.40–62.04safer35.38–51.2047.80–63.63actual66.0034.00
Passes
14%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction371494865safe305–436430–559735–995safer288–454412–576700–1030actual509282791
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction65.2871.65safe61.06–69.4967.14–76.15safer59.76–70.7965.81–77.48
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5913.9228.50safe11.73–17.4410.97–16.8622.70–34.31safer10.84–18.3310.05–17.7820.90–36.11actual14.009.0023.00
Offsides
67%
16%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.831.414.24safe1.62–4.040.25–2.571.87–6.61safer1.28–4.380.00–2.911.19–7.29actual9.002.0011.00
Yellow cards
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.745.49safe1.70–3.811.62–3.863.31–7.67safer1.42–4.081.33–4.152.75–8.23actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.450.00–0.450.00–0.90actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.705.06safe0.95–3.781.15–4.252.09–8.03safer0.56–4.160.71–4.691.27–8.85actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.37 0.19–2.63 | 1.00 | 1.09 0.23–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 3.00 | 2.51 0.68–4.33 0.18–4.83 | 4.00 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.58 2.37–7.08 | 4.00 | 3.93 2.22–5.64 1.75–6.11 | 6.00 | 8.66 5.10–12.22 4.13–13.19 | 10.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.02 9.32–16.72 8.28–17.75 | 23.00 | 11.79 8.42–15.17 7.49–16.10 | 9.00 | 24.81 17.73–31.89 15.77–33.86 | 32.00 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.54 6.02–11.05 5.16–11.92 | 13.00 | 6.75 4.45–9.05 3.66–9.85 | 6.00 | 15.29 10.47–20.11 8.81–21.77 | 19.00 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.43 1.85–5.02 1.31–5.55 | 5.00 | 3.27 1.86–4.69 1.37–5.17 | 1.00 | 6.71 3.71–9.71 2.69–10.73 | 6.00 | 45% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 5.76 3.55–7.97 2.96–8.56 | 3.00 | 4.44 2.46–6.42 1.92–6.95 | 3.00 | 10.20 6.01–14.38 4.88–15.51 | 6.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 43.29 36.97–49.61 35.38–51.20 | 66.00 | 55.72 49.40–62.04 47.80–63.63 | 34.00 | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 371 305–436 288–454 | 509 | 494 430–559 412–576 | 282 | 865 735–995 700–1030 | 791 | 14% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.28 61.06–69.49 59.76–70.79 | — | 71.65 67.14–76.15 65.81–77.48 | — | — | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 14.59 11.73–17.44 10.84–18.33 | 14.00 | 13.92 10.97–16.86 10.05–17.78 | 9.00 | 28.50 22.70–34.31 20.90–36.11 | 23.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.83 1.62–4.04 1.28–4.38 | 9.00 | 1.41 0.25–2.57 0.00–2.91 | 2.00 | 4.24 1.87–6.61 1.19–7.29 | 11.00 | 67% 16% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 2.75 1.70–3.81 1.42–4.08 | 2.00 | 2.74 1.62–3.86 1.33–4.15 | 2.00 | 5.49 3.31–7.67 2.75–8.23 | 4.00 | 42% 17% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 1.00 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 1.00 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.95–3.78 0.56–4.16 | 3.00 | 2.70 1.15–4.25 0.71–4.69 | 4.00 | 5.06 2.09–8.03 1.27–8.85 | 7.00 | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.