Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.172.58safe0.45–2.380.31–2.020.76–4.40safer0.19–2.630.09–2.250.28–4.88
Shots on target
51%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.453.908.34safe2.58–6.312.15–5.644.74–11.95safer2.09–6.801.69–6.113.78–12.90
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8811.7424.61safe8.95–16.808.18–15.3017.13–32.10safer7.86–17.897.22–16.2615.08–34.15
Shots in box
43%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.727.8715.58safe4.77–10.665.19–10.559.96–21.21safer3.94–11.494.45–11.298.39–22.77
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.886.61safe1.85–5.611.23–4.533.08–10.15safer1.31–6.160.73–5.022.04–11.18
Corners
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.804.289.08safe2.59–7.012.28–6.284.86–13.29safer2.01–7.591.74–6.813.76–14.40
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction56.9442.74safe50.15–63.7335.96–49.53safer48.48–65.4034.28–51.20
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction496365861safe429–564299–432728–995safer411–582281–449692–1031
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction68.2466.17safe64.21–72.2761.84–70.49safer62.92–73.5660.54–71.80
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7115.4829.19safe10.88–16.5512.54–18.4323.41–34.98safer10.12–17.3111.79–19.1721.91–36.48
Offsides
13%
13%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction1.483.334.81safe0.32–2.642.24–4.432.56–7.06safer0.01–2.941.95–4.721.97–7.65
Yellow cards
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.645.00safe1.31–3.411.51–3.772.82–7.18safer1.05–3.681.22–4.062.26–7.73
Red cards
13%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.150.32safe0.01–0.330.00–0.340.00–0.67safer0.00–0.480.00–0.470.00–0.95
GK saves
33%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.185.79safe1.17–4.041.62–4.742.79–8.78safer0.78–4.431.20–5.161.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.09–2.25 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.58–6.31 2.09–6.80 | 3.90 2.15–5.64 1.69–6.11 | 8.34 4.74–11.95 3.78–12.90 | 51% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 12.88 8.95–16.80 7.86–17.89 | 11.74 8.18–15.30 7.22–16.26 | 24.61 17.13–32.10 15.08–34.15 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 7.72 4.77–10.66 3.94–11.49 | 7.87 5.19–10.55 4.45–11.29 | 15.58 9.96–21.21 8.39–22.77 | 43% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.85–5.61 1.31–6.16 | 2.88 1.23–4.53 0.73–5.02 | 6.61 3.08–10.15 2.04–11.18 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 4.80 2.59–7.01 2.01–7.59 | 4.28 2.28–6.28 1.74–6.81 | 9.08 4.86–13.29 3.76–14.40 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 56.94 50.15–63.73 48.48–65.40 | 42.74 35.96–49.53 34.28–51.20 | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 496 429–564 411–582 | 365 299–432 281–449 | 861 728–995 692–1031 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.24 64.21–72.27 62.92–73.56 | 66.17 61.84–70.49 60.54–71.80 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 13.71 10.88–16.55 10.12–17.31 | 15.48 12.54–18.43 11.79–19.17 | 29.19 23.41–34.98 21.91–36.48 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.01–2.94 | 3.33 2.24–4.43 1.95–4.72 | 4.81 2.56–7.06 1.97–7.65 | 13% 13% 73% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.05–3.68 | 2.64 1.51–3.77 1.22–4.06 | 5.00 2.82–7.18 2.26–7.73 | 36% 18% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.32 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.95 | 13% 74% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.18 1.62–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 5.79 2.79–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 33% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.