Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Javier Alberola Rojas · Spain
Goals
50%
26%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.480.932.41safe0.52–2.450.07–1.790.59–4.24safer0.26–2.710.00–2.040.08–4.74actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.073.517.58safe2.21–5.921.80–5.224.02–11.14safer1.71–6.421.33–5.693.05–12.11actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8911.9724.86safe9.19–16.598.59–15.3517.78–31.94safer8.16–17.627.66–16.2815.82–33.91actual19.0011.0030.00
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.666.2015.86safe7.15–12.183.90–8.5011.04–20.68safer6.28–13.043.10–9.309.38–22.34actual11.006.0017.00
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.866.52safe2.08–5.251.44–4.273.53–9.52safer1.55–5.790.96–4.762.50–10.54actual4.005.009.00
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.349.34safe2.80–7.212.36–6.315.16–13.52safer2.20–7.801.82–6.854.02–14.66actual5.009.0014.00
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.8654.17safe39.55–52.1847.85–60.49safer37.95–53.7846.26–62.09actual45.0055.00
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction378471849safe313–443407–536719–979safer295–461389–553684–1015actual328415743
Pass accuracy %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction65.8266.23safe61.60–70.0361.72–70.73safer60.30–71.3460.39–72.06
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7313.4527.18safe10.87–16.5810.50–16.3921.37–32.98safer9.98–17.479.59–17.3119.57–34.78actual16.0016.0032.00
Offsides
54%
20%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.483.70safe1.01–3.430.32–2.641.33–6.07safer0.67–3.780.00–2.980.65–6.75actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.384.23safe0.79–2.901.26–3.502.05–6.40safer0.52–3.170.97–3.791.49–6.97actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
77%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.160.28safe0.00–0.280.00–0.350.00–0.63safer0.00–0.430.00–0.500.00–0.93actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.605.00safe0.99–3.821.04–4.152.03–7.97safer0.60–4.210.61–4.581.21–8.79actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.71 | 1.00 | 0.93 0.07–1.79 0.00–2.04 | 0.00 | 2.41 0.59–4.24 0.08–4.74 | 1.00 | 50% 26% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.07 2.21–5.92 1.71–6.42 | 7.00 | 3.51 1.80–5.22 1.33–5.69 | 4.00 | 7.58 4.02–11.14 3.05–12.11 | 11.00 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.89 9.19–16.59 8.16–17.62 | 19.00 | 11.97 8.59–15.35 7.66–16.28 | 11.00 | 24.86 17.78–31.94 15.82–33.91 | 30.00 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 9.66 7.15–12.18 6.28–13.04 | 11.00 | 6.20 3.90–8.50 3.10–9.30 | 6.00 | 15.86 11.04–20.68 9.38–22.34 | 17.00 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 2.08–5.25 1.55–5.79 | 4.00 | 2.86 1.44–4.27 0.96–4.76 | 5.00 | 6.52 3.53–9.52 2.50–10.54 | 9.00 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.80–7.21 2.20–7.80 | 5.00 | 4.34 2.36–6.31 1.82–6.85 | 9.00 | 9.34 5.16–13.52 4.02–14.66 | 14.00 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 45.86 39.55–52.18 37.95–53.78 | 45.00 | 54.17 47.85–60.49 46.26–62.09 | 55.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 378 313–443 295–461 | 328 | 471 407–536 389–553 | 415 | 849 719–979 684–1015 | 743 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.82 61.60–70.03 60.30–71.34 | — | 66.23 61.72–70.73 60.39–72.06 | — | — | — | 46% 50% |
| Fouls | 13.73 10.87–16.58 9.98–17.47 | 16.00 | 13.45 10.50–16.39 9.59–17.31 | 16.00 | 27.18 21.37–32.98 19.57–34.78 | 32.00 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.22 1.01–3.43 0.67–3.78 | 0.00 | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.00–2.98 | 1.00 | 3.70 1.33–6.07 0.65–6.75 | 1.00 | 54% 20% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.79–2.90 0.52–3.17 | 4.00 | 2.38 1.26–3.50 0.97–3.79 | 2.00 | 4.23 2.05–6.40 1.49–6.97 | 6.00 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.50 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.93 | 0.00 | 77% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.41 0.99–3.82 0.60–4.21 | 4.00 | 2.60 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.58 | 6.00 | 5.00 2.03–7.97 1.21–8.79 | 10.00 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.