La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid · Spain
Goals
37%
28%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.152.36safe0.25–2.170.29–2.010.54–4.18safer0.00–2.430.04–2.260.03–4.69actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.894.117.99safe2.03–5.742.40–5.824.43–11.56safer1.53–6.241.93–6.283.46–12.53actual3.002.005.00
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3112.6724.98safe8.61–16.029.29–16.0517.90–32.07safer7.58–17.058.36–16.9815.94–34.03actual9.0019.0028.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.078.0016.07safe5.55–10.595.70–10.3011.26–20.89safer4.69–11.454.91–11.109.59–22.55actual8.006.0014.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.507.55safe2.46–5.632.09–4.914.55–10.55safer1.93–6.171.60–5.403.53–11.57actual2.008.0010.00
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.035.2510.27safe2.82–7.233.27–7.226.09–14.45safer2.23–7.832.73–7.764.96–15.59actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction50.5750.30safe44.25–56.8943.99–56.62safer42.66–58.4842.39–58.22actual37.0063.00
Passes
39%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction407438846safe342–473374–503716–976safer324–490356–520681–1011actual268477745
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction66.3667.28safe62.14–70.5762.77–71.79safer60.84–71.8761.44–73.12
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7712.2924.07safe8.91–14.639.35–15.2418.26–29.87safer8.03–15.518.43–16.1616.46–31.67actual21.0013.0034.00
Offsides
38%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.264.37safe0.90–3.321.09–3.422.00–6.74safer0.56–3.670.76–3.751.32–7.42actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.524.82safe1.25–3.361.40–3.642.65–7.00safer0.98–3.631.11–3.932.08–7.56actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.645.06safe1.01–3.841.09–4.192.10–8.03safer0.62–4.230.66–4.631.27–8.85actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.17 0.00–2.43 | 1.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.04–2.26 | 1.00 | 2.36 0.54–4.18 0.03–4.69 | 2.00 | 37% 28% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.89 2.03–5.74 1.53–6.24 | 3.00 | 4.11 2.40–5.82 1.93–6.28 | 2.00 | 7.99 4.43–11.56 3.46–12.53 | 5.00 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.31 8.61–16.02 7.58–17.05 | 9.00 | 12.67 9.29–16.05 8.36–16.98 | 19.00 | 24.98 17.90–32.07 15.94–34.03 | 28.00 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.07 5.55–10.59 4.69–11.45 | 8.00 | 8.00 5.70–10.30 4.91–11.10 | 6.00 | 16.07 11.26–20.89 9.59–22.55 | 14.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.46–5.63 1.93–6.17 | 2.00 | 3.50 2.09–4.91 1.60–5.40 | 8.00 | 7.55 4.55–10.55 3.53–11.57 | 10.00 | 51% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.82–7.23 2.23–7.83 | 4.00 | 5.25 3.27–7.22 2.73–7.76 | 4.00 | 10.27 6.09–14.45 4.96–15.59 | 8.00 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 50.57 44.25–56.89 42.66–58.48 | 37.00 | 50.30 43.99–56.62 42.39–58.22 | 63.00 | — | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 407 342–473 324–490 | 268 | 438 374–503 356–520 | 477 | 846 716–976 681–1011 | 745 | 39% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.36 62.14–70.57 60.84–71.87 | — | 67.28 62.77–71.79 61.44–73.12 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 11.77 8.91–14.63 8.03–15.51 | 21.00 | 12.29 9.35–15.24 8.43–16.16 | 13.00 | 24.07 18.26–29.87 16.46–31.67 | 34.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.67 | 2.00 | 2.26 1.09–3.42 0.76–3.75 | 0.00 | 4.37 2.00–6.74 1.32–7.42 | 2.00 | 38% 20% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.25–3.36 0.98–3.63 | 3.00 | 2.52 1.40–3.64 1.11–3.93 | 2.00 | 4.82 2.65–7.00 2.08–7.56 | 5.00 | 37% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.42 1.01–3.84 0.62–4.23 | 1.00 | 2.64 1.09–4.19 0.66–4.63 | 2.00 | 5.06 2.10–8.03 1.27–8.85 | 3.00 | 37% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+