La Liga·Regular Season - 27·
La Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.092.60safe0.54–2.470.24–1.950.78–4.42safer0.29–2.720.01–2.180.30–4.90
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.053.388.43safe3.19–6.911.63–5.124.82–12.03safer2.70–7.401.17–5.583.86–12.99
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.369.9626.32safe12.43–20.286.40–13.5218.83–33.80safer11.34–21.375.44–14.4816.78–35.85
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction9.526.7816.30safe6.58–12.464.09–9.4610.67–21.92safer5.75–13.293.36–10.199.11–23.49
Blocked shots
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.942.637.56safe3.05–6.820.97–4.284.03–11.10safer2.51–7.360.48–4.772.99–12.14
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.273.7710.04safe4.06–8.481.77–5.775.83–14.26safer3.48–9.061.24–6.314.72–15.36
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.7442.35safe50.95–64.5335.56–49.13safer49.28–66.2033.89–50.81
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction517351868safe450–584284–417734–1002safer432–602267–435699–1037
Pass accuracy %
71%
24%
homeawayprediction70.7565.86safe66.72–74.7861.53–70.18safer65.43–76.0760.22–71.49
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6412.9526.59safe10.81–16.4810.00–15.8920.81–32.38safer10.05–17.249.26–16.6419.31–33.88
Offsides
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.773.27safe0.34–2.660.68–2.861.01–5.52safer0.03–2.960.39–3.150.42–6.11
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.244.06safe0.78–2.881.11–3.371.89–6.24safer0.51–3.140.82–3.661.33–6.80
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
20%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.143.585.72safe0.71–3.582.03–5.142.73–8.71safer0.32–3.971.60–5.561.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.47 0.29–2.72 | 1.09 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 47% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.19–6.91 2.70–7.40 | 3.38 1.63–5.12 1.17–5.58 | 8.43 4.82–12.03 3.86–12.99 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 16.36 12.43–20.28 11.34–21.37 | 9.96 6.40–13.52 5.44–14.48 | 26.32 18.83–33.80 16.78–35.85 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 9.52 6.58–12.46 5.75–13.29 | 6.78 4.09–9.46 3.36–10.19 | 16.30 10.67–21.92 9.11–23.49 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.94 3.05–6.82 2.51–7.36 | 2.63 0.97–4.28 0.48–4.77 | 7.56 4.03–11.10 2.99–12.14 | 75% 15% |
| Corners | 6.27 4.06–8.48 3.48–9.06 | 3.77 1.77–5.77 1.24–6.31 | 10.04 5.83–14.26 4.72–15.36 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 57.74 50.95–64.53 49.28–66.20 | 42.35 35.56–49.13 33.89–50.81 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 517 450–584 432–602 | 351 284–417 267–435 | 868 734–1002 699–1037 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.75 66.72–74.78 65.43–76.07 | 65.86 61.53–70.18 60.22–71.49 | — | 71% 24% |
| Fouls | 13.64 10.81–16.48 10.05–17.24 | 12.95 10.00–15.89 9.26–16.64 | 26.59 20.81–32.38 19.31–33.88 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.03–2.96 | 1.77 0.68–2.86 0.39–3.15 | 3.27 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.06 1.89–6.24 1.33–6.80 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.14 0.71–3.58 0.32–3.97 | 3.58 2.03–5.14 1.60–5.56 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.92–9.53 | 20% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+