Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Juan Martinez Munuera · Spain
Goals
14%
18%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction0.972.303.27safe0.01–1.931.44–3.161.45–5.09safer0.00–2.191.20–3.410.94–5.60actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction3.007.3010.30safe1.14–4.855.59–9.006.73–13.86safer0.64–5.355.12–9.475.77–14.83actual3.007.0010.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3417.4024.74safe3.63–11.0414.02–20.7817.66–31.82safer2.60–12.0713.09–21.7115.70–33.78actual7.0024.0031.00
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.6111.4518.06safe4.09–9.139.15–13.7513.24–22.87safer3.23–9.998.35–14.5511.58–24.54actual3.0012.0015.00
Blocked shots
18%
13%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.113.805.90safe0.52–3.692.38–5.212.91–8.90safer0.00–4.231.89–5.701.88–9.92actual0.005.005.00
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction2.856.128.98safe0.65–5.064.15–8.104.79–13.16safer0.05–5.653.61–8.643.66–14.29actual1.003.004.00
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction27.0172.51safe20.69–33.3366.19–78.83safer19.09–34.9264.59–80.43actual30.0070.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction2787291007safe212–343664–794877–1136safer195–360647–811841–1172actual278642920
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction65.1583.69safe60.93–69.3679.18–88.19safer59.63–70.6677.85–89.52
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7810.3522.13safe8.92–14.647.41–13.3016.33–27.93safer8.04–15.526.49–14.2214.53–29.74actual10.0011.0021.00
Offsides
67%
14%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.862.256.11safe2.65–5.071.09–3.413.74–8.49safer2.31–5.420.76–3.753.07–9.16actual5.002.007.00
Yellow cards
45%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.884.03safe1.10–3.210.76–3.001.86–6.21safer0.82–3.480.47–3.291.30–6.77actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.012.026.03safe2.60–5.430.46–3.573.06–9.00safer2.21–5.820.03–4.002.24–9.82actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.01–1.93 0.00–2.19 | 1.00 | 2.30 1.44–3.16 1.20–3.41 | 3.00 | 3.27 1.45–5.09 0.94–5.60 | 4.00 | 14% 18% 67% |
| Shots on target | 3.00 1.14–4.85 0.64–5.35 | 3.00 | 7.30 5.59–9.00 5.12–9.47 | 7.00 | 10.30 6.73–13.86 5.77–14.83 | 10.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 7.34 3.63–11.04 2.60–12.07 | 7.00 | 17.40 14.02–20.78 13.09–21.71 | 24.00 | 24.74 17.66–31.82 15.70–33.78 | 31.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 6.61 4.09–9.13 3.23–9.99 | 3.00 | 11.45 9.15–13.75 8.35–14.55 | 12.00 | 18.06 13.24–22.87 11.58–24.54 | 15.00 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 2.11 0.52–3.69 0.00–4.23 | 0.00 | 3.80 2.38–5.21 1.89–5.70 | 5.00 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 1.88–9.92 | 5.00 | 18% 13% 69% |
| Corners | 2.85 0.65–5.06 0.05–5.65 | 1.00 | 6.12 4.15–8.10 3.61–8.64 | 3.00 | 8.98 4.79–13.16 3.66–14.29 | 4.00 | 83% |
| Possession % | 27.01 20.69–33.33 19.09–34.92 | 30.00 | 72.51 66.19–78.83 64.59–80.43 | 70.00 | — | — | 100% |
| Passes | 278 212–343 195–360 | 278 | 729 664–794 647–811 | 642 | 1007 877–1136 841–1172 | 920 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.15 60.93–69.36 59.63–70.66 | — | 83.69 79.18–88.19 77.85–89.52 | — | — | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.92–14.64 8.04–15.52 | 10.00 | 10.35 7.41–13.30 6.49–14.22 | 11.00 | 22.13 16.33–27.93 14.53–29.74 | 21.00 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 3.86 2.65–5.07 2.31–5.42 | 5.00 | 2.25 1.09–3.41 0.76–3.75 | 2.00 | 6.11 3.74–8.49 3.07–9.16 | 7.00 | 67% 14% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.21 0.82–3.48 | 1.00 | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | 0.00 | 4.03 1.86–6.21 1.30–6.77 | 1.00 | 45% 20% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 4.01 2.60–5.43 2.21–5.82 | 5.00 | 2.02 0.46–3.57 0.03–4.00 | 2.00 | 6.03 3.06–9.00 2.24–9.82 | 7.00 | 73% 15% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.