La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: José Luis Munuera Montero · Spain
Goals
28%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.532.67safe0.18–2.100.67–2.390.85–4.49safer0.00–2.360.42–2.630.34–5.00actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.285.079.35safe2.42–6.143.37–6.785.79–12.92safer1.92–6.632.90–7.254.82–13.88actual5.006.0011.00
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4213.8425.26safe7.72–15.1210.46–17.2218.18–32.35safer6.69–16.159.53–18.1516.22–34.31actual21.0021.0042.00
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.238.7116.94safe5.71–10.746.41–11.0112.12–21.76safer4.85–11.615.61–11.8110.46–23.42actual12.0015.0027.00
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.977.13safe1.58–4.752.55–5.384.14–10.13safer1.05–5.282.07–5.873.11–11.15actual8.007.0015.00
Corners
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.075.1610.23safe2.86–7.273.19–7.146.05–14.41safer2.27–7.872.65–7.684.91–15.55actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.4451.14safe42.12–54.7644.82–57.46safer40.53–56.3543.22–59.05actual54.0046.00
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction421485906safe356–487420–549776–1036safer338–504403–567741–1071actual425370795
Pass accuracy %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction67.1870.49safe62.97–71.4065.98–74.99safer61.67–72.7064.65–76.32
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6011.3320.94safe6.75–12.468.39–14.2815.14–26.74safer5.86–13.357.47–15.2013.33–28.55actual9.0012.0021.00
Offsides
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.194.29safe0.89–3.311.03–3.351.92–6.66safer0.55–3.660.69–3.681.24–7.34actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
43%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.164.46safe1.25–3.361.03–3.282.29–6.64safer0.98–3.640.74–3.571.72–7.20actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
49%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.665.75safe1.68–4.511.11–4.222.78–8.72safer1.29–4.890.68–4.651.96–9.54actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.18–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 2.00 | 1.53 0.67–2.39 0.42–2.63 | 3.00 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.34–5.00 | 5.00 | 28% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.14 1.92–6.63 | 5.00 | 5.07 3.37–6.78 2.90–7.25 | 6.00 | 9.35 5.79–12.92 4.82–13.88 | 11.00 | 33% 54% |
| Total shots | 11.42 7.72–15.12 6.69–16.15 | 21.00 | 13.84 10.46–17.22 9.53–18.15 | 21.00 | 25.26 18.18–32.35 16.22–34.31 | 42.00 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 8.23 5.71–10.74 4.85–11.61 | 12.00 | 8.71 6.41–11.01 5.61–11.81 | 15.00 | 16.94 12.12–21.76 10.46–23.42 | 27.00 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.58–4.75 1.05–5.28 | 8.00 | 3.97 2.55–5.38 2.07–5.87 | 7.00 | 7.13 4.14–10.13 3.11–11.15 | 15.00 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.86–7.27 2.27–7.87 | 7.00 | 5.16 3.19–7.14 2.65–7.68 | 5.00 | 10.23 6.05–14.41 4.91–15.55 | 12.00 | 42% 45% |
| Possession % | 48.44 42.12–54.76 40.53–56.35 | 54.00 | 51.14 44.82–57.46 43.22–59.05 | 46.00 | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 421 356–487 338–504 | 425 | 485 420–549 403–567 | 370 | 906 776–1036 741–1071 | 795 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.18 62.97–71.40 61.67–72.70 | — | 70.49 65.98–74.99 64.65–76.32 | — | — | — | 32% 64% |
| Fouls | 9.60 6.75–12.46 5.86–13.35 | 9.00 | 11.33 8.39–14.28 7.47–15.20 | 12.00 | 20.94 15.14–26.74 13.33–28.55 | 21.00 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.89–3.31 0.55–3.66 | 2.00 | 2.19 1.03–3.35 0.69–3.68 | 2.00 | 4.29 1.92–6.66 1.24–7.34 | 4.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.25–3.36 0.98–3.64 | 2.00 | 2.16 1.03–3.28 0.74–3.57 | 1.00 | 4.46 2.29–6.64 1.72–7.20 | 3.00 | 43% 19% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 1.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 1.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.68–4.51 1.29–4.89 | 3.00 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 4.00 | 5.75 2.78–8.72 1.96–9.54 | 7.00 | 49% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+