La Liga·Regular Season - 30·
La Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.122.95safe0.86–2.800.26–1.971.13–4.77safer0.61–3.050.03–2.200.65–5.25
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.843.789.62safe3.98–7.712.04–5.526.02–13.23safer3.49–8.201.57–5.995.06–14.18
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9010.8027.70safe12.98–20.837.24–14.3620.22–35.19safer11.89–21.926.28–15.3218.17–37.24
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction11.297.2518.54safe8.35–14.244.57–9.9312.92–24.17safer7.52–15.063.83–10.6711.35–25.73
Blocked shots
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.922.897.81safe3.04–6.801.24–4.554.28–11.35safer2.49–7.340.75–5.043.24–12.38
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.024.3310.35safe3.81–8.232.33–6.336.14–14.56safer3.23–8.811.80–6.865.03–15.67
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction55.3345.30safe48.54–62.1238.51–52.08safer46.87–63.7936.84–53.75
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction526406931safe459–593339–472798–1065safer440–611322–490762–1101
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction66.8268.10safe62.79–70.8463.77–72.42safer61.49–72.1462.47–73.73
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3511.0621.41safe7.51–13.198.12–14.0015.63–27.19safer6.76–13.957.37–14.7514.12–28.70
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.014.00safe0.83–3.150.92–3.111.75–6.25safer0.53–3.450.63–3.391.16–6.84
Yellow cards
29%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.853.26safe0.36–2.460.72–2.981.08–5.44safer0.09–2.720.43–3.270.53–6.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.534.026.55safe1.09–3.962.46–5.583.56–9.54safer0.71–4.352.04–6.002.75–10.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.65–5.25 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.84 3.98–7.71 3.49–8.20 | 3.78 2.04–5.52 1.57–5.99 | 9.62 6.02–13.23 5.06–14.18 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 16.90 12.98–20.83 11.89–21.92 | 10.80 7.24–14.36 6.28–15.32 | 27.70 20.22–35.19 18.17–37.24 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 11.29 8.35–14.24 7.52–15.06 | 7.25 4.57–9.93 3.83–10.67 | 18.54 12.92–24.17 11.35–25.73 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.92 3.04–6.80 2.49–7.34 | 2.89 1.24–4.55 0.75–5.04 | 7.81 4.28–11.35 3.24–12.38 | 71% 18% |
| Corners | 6.02 3.81–8.23 3.23–8.81 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.80–6.86 | 10.35 6.14–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 55.33 48.54–62.12 46.87–63.79 | 45.30 38.51–52.08 36.84–53.75 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 526 459–593 440–611 | 406 339–472 322–490 | 931 798–1065 762–1101 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.82 62.79–70.84 61.49–72.14 | 68.10 63.77–72.42 62.47–73.73 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 10.35 7.51–13.19 6.76–13.95 | 11.06 8.12–14.00 7.37–14.75 | 21.41 15.63–27.19 14.12–28.70 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 2.01 0.92–3.11 0.63–3.39 | 4.00 1.75–6.25 1.16–6.84 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.36–2.46 0.09–2.72 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.26 1.08–5.44 0.53–6.00 | 29% 23% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.09–3.96 0.71–4.35 | 4.02 2.46–5.58 2.04–6.00 | 6.55 3.56–9.54 2.75–10.35 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+