La Liga·Regular Season - 7·
La Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer · Spain
Goals
66%
19%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.180.913.09safe1.22–3.140.05–1.771.26–4.91safer0.96–3.400.00–2.010.76–5.42actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.813.059.87safe4.96–8.671.35–4.766.30–13.43safer4.46–9.170.88–5.235.33–14.40actual7.001.008.00
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction17.668.6726.33safe13.96–21.365.29–12.0519.25–33.41safer12.93–22.404.36–12.9817.29–35.38actual21.006.0027.00
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction12.226.2418.46safe9.70–14.743.94–8.5513.65–23.28safer8.84–15.603.15–9.3411.99–24.94actual13.006.0019.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.552.687.23safe2.97–6.131.27–4.094.23–10.23safer2.43–6.670.78–4.583.21–11.25actual6.001.007.00
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.993.5810.58safe4.79–9.201.61–5.566.39–14.76safer4.19–9.791.07–6.105.26–15.89actual7.001.008.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.0436.02safe57.72–70.3529.71–42.34safer56.12–71.9528.11–43.94actual62.0038.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction590326917safe525–656262–391787–1046safer507–673244–408751–1082actual613367980
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction79.4367.65safe75.22–83.6563.14–72.15safer73.92–84.9561.81–73.48
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7212.4124.13safe8.87–14.589.46–15.3518.33–29.93safer7.98–15.478.55–16.2716.53–31.74actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
62%
17%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.871.694.56safe1.66–4.080.53–2.862.19–6.93safer1.31–4.420.20–3.191.51–7.61actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
32%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.584.67safe1.03–3.141.46–3.702.49–6.84safer0.76–3.411.17–3.991.93–7.40actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
16%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction2.013.895.90safe0.60–3.432.33–5.442.93–8.86safer0.21–3.811.90–5.872.11–9.69actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 1.22–3.14 0.96–3.40 | 3.00 | 0.91 0.05–1.77 0.00–2.01 | 1.00 | 3.09 1.26–4.91 0.76–5.42 | 4.00 | 66% 19% 14% |
| Shots on target | 6.81 4.96–8.67 4.46–9.17 | 7.00 | 3.05 1.35–4.76 0.88–5.23 | 1.00 | 9.87 6.30–13.43 5.33–14.40 | 8.00 | 85% |
| Total shots | 17.66 13.96–21.36 12.93–22.40 | 21.00 | 8.67 5.29–12.05 4.36–12.98 | 6.00 | 26.33 19.25–33.41 17.29–35.38 | 27.00 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 12.22 9.70–14.74 8.84–15.60 | 13.00 | 6.24 3.94–8.55 3.15–9.34 | 6.00 | 18.46 13.65–23.28 11.99–24.94 | 19.00 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.97–6.13 2.43–6.67 | 6.00 | 2.68 1.27–4.09 0.78–4.58 | 1.00 | 7.23 4.23–10.23 3.21–11.25 | 7.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.99 4.79–9.20 4.19–9.79 | 7.00 | 3.58 1.61–5.56 1.07–6.10 | 1.00 | 10.58 6.39–14.76 5.26–15.89 | 8.00 | 82% |
| Possession % | 64.04 57.72–70.35 56.12–71.95 | 62.00 | 36.02 29.71–42.34 28.11–43.94 | 38.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 590 525–656 507–673 | 613 | 326 262–391 244–408 | 367 | 917 787–1046 751–1082 | 980 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.43 75.22–83.65 73.92–84.95 | — | 67.65 63.14–72.15 61.81–73.48 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.87–14.58 7.98–15.47 | 9.00 | 12.41 9.46–15.35 8.55–16.27 | 10.00 | 24.13 18.33–29.93 16.53–31.74 | 19.00 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.87 1.66–4.08 1.31–4.42 | 1.00 | 1.69 0.53–2.86 0.20–3.19 | 0.00 | 4.56 2.19–6.93 1.51–7.61 | 1.00 | 62% 17% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.03–3.14 0.76–3.41 | 1.00 | 2.58 1.46–3.70 1.17–3.99 | 1.00 | 4.67 2.49–6.84 1.93–7.40 | 2.00 | 32% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.01 0.60–3.43 0.21–3.81 | 0.00 | 3.89 2.33–5.44 1.90–5.87 | 3.00 | 5.90 2.93–8.86 2.11–9.69 | 3.00 | 16% 71% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.