La Liga·Regular Season - 32·
La Liga·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
21%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.112.103.21safe0.14–2.081.24–2.951.39–5.03safer0.00–2.331.01–3.180.91–5.51
Shots on target
18%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction3.665.919.57safe1.80–5.534.16–7.655.96–13.17safer1.31–6.023.70–8.115.01–14.13
Total shots
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7916.2328.02safe7.87–15.7212.66–19.7920.53–35.50safer6.78–16.8111.70–20.7518.48–37.56
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction7.6410.7718.40safe4.70–10.588.08–13.4512.78–24.03safer3.87–11.417.35–14.1811.21–25.59
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.364.357.71safe1.48–5.242.70–6.004.18–11.25safer0.94–5.792.21–6.503.14–12.28
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.266.0210.28safe2.05–6.484.02–8.026.07–14.50safer1.47–7.053.49–8.554.96–15.60
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction41.2160.81safe34.42–48.0054.02–67.59safer32.75–49.6752.35–69.27
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction391538929safe324–459471–604796–1063safer306–477454–622760–1099
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction66.3478.61safe62.31–70.3774.29–82.94safer61.02–71.6672.98–84.25
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0012.7424.73safe9.16–14.839.79–15.6818.95–30.51safer8.40–15.599.04–16.4317.45–32.02
Offsides
21%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.513.99safe0.31–2.641.42–3.611.73–6.24safer0.01–2.941.13–3.891.14–6.83
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.043.84safe0.75–2.850.91–3.171.66–6.02safer0.48–3.120.62–3.461.10–6.58
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.842.626.46safe2.40–5.271.07–4.183.47–9.45safer2.01–5.660.64–4.602.65–10.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 2.10 1.24–2.95 1.01–3.18 | 3.21 1.39–5.03 0.91–5.51 | 19% 21% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.80–5.53 1.31–6.02 | 5.91 4.16–7.65 3.70–8.11 | 9.57 5.96–13.17 5.01–14.13 | 18% 71% |
| Total shots | 11.79 7.87–15.72 6.78–16.81 | 16.23 12.66–19.79 11.70–20.75 | 28.02 20.53–35.50 18.48–37.56 | 17% 77% |
| Shots in box | 7.64 4.70–10.58 3.87–11.41 | 10.77 8.08–13.45 7.35–14.18 | 18.40 12.78–24.03 11.21–25.59 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 3.36 1.48–5.24 0.94–5.79 | 4.35 2.70–6.00 2.21–6.50 | 7.71 4.18–11.25 3.14–12.28 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.26 2.05–6.48 1.47–7.05 | 6.02 4.02–8.02 3.49–8.55 | 10.28 6.07–14.50 4.96–15.60 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 41.21 34.42–48.00 32.75–49.67 | 60.81 54.02–67.59 52.35–69.27 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 391 324–459 306–477 | 538 471–604 454–622 | 929 796–1063 760–1099 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.34 62.31–70.37 61.02–71.66 | 78.61 74.29–82.94 72.98–84.25 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 12.00 9.16–14.83 8.40–15.59 | 12.74 9.79–15.68 9.04–16.43 | 24.73 18.95–30.51 17.45–32.02 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.31–2.64 0.01–2.94 | 2.51 1.42–3.61 1.13–3.89 | 3.99 1.73–6.24 1.14–6.83 | 21% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.12 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.84 1.66–6.02 1.10–6.58 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.84 2.40–5.27 2.01–5.66 | 2.62 1.07–4.18 0.64–4.60 | 6.46 3.47–9.45 2.65–10.26 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+