La Liga·Regular Season - 8·
La Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.312.79safe0.51–2.450.46–2.170.97–4.61safer0.26–2.700.23–2.390.49–5.09
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.679.48safe2.94–6.672.93–6.415.87–13.08safer2.45–7.162.46–6.884.92–14.04
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5613.0326.59safe9.63–17.489.46–16.5919.10–34.07safer8.54–18.578.51–17.5517.05–36.12
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.318.4817.79safe6.37–12.255.80–11.1612.17–23.42safer5.54–13.085.06–11.9010.60–24.98
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.853.447.28safe1.96–5.731.78–5.093.75–10.82safer1.42–6.271.29–5.582.71–11.85
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.849.89safe2.84–7.272.83–6.845.68–14.11safer2.27–7.852.30–7.374.57–15.21
Possession %
55%
41%
homeawayprediction51.6648.67safe44.87–58.4541.89–55.45safer43.20–60.1240.21–57.13
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction481428909safe414–549361–494775–1043safer396–567344–512740–1078
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction68.2170.31safe64.18–72.2465.98–74.63safer62.89–73.5364.67–75.94
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6212.4424.06safe8.79–14.469.50–15.3918.28–29.85safer8.03–15.228.75–16.1316.78–31.35
Offsides
29%
18%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.634.59safe0.79–3.111.54–3.732.33–6.84safer0.49–3.411.25–4.011.74–7.43
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.224.26safe0.99–3.091.09–3.352.08–6.44safer0.73–3.360.80–3.641.53–7.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.106.27safe1.73–4.601.54–4.663.27–9.26safer1.34–4.991.12–5.082.46–10.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.31 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.39 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.81 2.94–6.67 2.45–7.16 | 4.67 2.93–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 9.48 5.87–13.08 4.92–14.04 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.56 9.63–17.48 8.54–18.57 | 13.03 9.46–16.59 8.51–17.55 | 26.59 19.10–34.07 17.05–36.12 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.31 6.37–12.25 5.54–13.08 | 8.48 5.80–11.16 5.06–11.90 | 17.79 12.17–23.42 10.60–24.98 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 1.96–5.73 1.42–6.27 | 3.44 1.78–5.09 1.29–5.58 | 7.28 3.75–10.82 2.71–11.85 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.84–7.27 2.27–7.85 | 4.84 2.83–6.84 2.30–7.37 | 9.89 5.68–14.11 4.57–15.21 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 51.66 44.87–58.45 43.20–60.12 | 48.67 41.89–55.45 40.21–57.13 | — | 55% 41% |
| Passes | 481 414–549 396–567 | 428 361–494 344–512 | 909 775–1043 740–1078 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.21 64.18–72.24 62.89–73.53 | 70.31 65.98–74.63 64.67–75.94 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 11.62 8.79–14.46 8.03–15.22 | 12.44 9.50–15.39 8.75–16.13 | 24.06 18.28–29.85 16.78–31.35 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 2.63 1.54–3.73 1.25–4.01 | 4.59 2.33–6.84 1.74–7.43 | 29% 18% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.99–3.09 0.73–3.36 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 4.26 2.08–6.44 1.53–7.00 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.17 1.73–4.60 1.34–4.99 | 3.10 1.54–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 6.27 3.27–9.26 2.46–10.07 | 43% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.