La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.382.99safe0.64–2.570.53–2.241.16–4.81safer0.38–2.820.30–2.460.68–5.29
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.269.16safe3.04–6.772.51–6.005.55–12.76safer2.55–7.262.05–6.464.60–13.72
Total shots
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4711.7626.23safe10.54–18.398.20–15.3218.74–33.71safer9.45–19.487.24–16.2816.69–35.76
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.168.1817.34safe6.22–12.105.50–10.8611.71–22.96safer5.39–12.934.76–11.6010.15–24.53
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.967.01safe2.17–5.931.31–4.613.48–10.55safer1.63–6.480.81–5.112.44–11.58
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.299.93safe3.42–7.852.29–6.295.71–14.14safer2.85–8.421.76–6.824.61–15.25
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8048.45safe45.01–58.5941.67–55.24safer43.34–60.2640.00–56.91
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction473442915safe406–541376–509782–1049safer388–559358–526746–1085
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction68.1571.59safe64.12–72.1867.27–75.91safer62.83–73.4865.96–77.22
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6911.4823.17safe8.85–14.538.54–14.4317.39–28.95safer8.10–15.287.79–15.1715.89–30.46
Offsides
51%
18%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.094.75safe1.50–3.821.00–3.182.50–7.00safer1.20–4.120.71–3.471.91–7.59
Yellow cards
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.963.71safe0.70–2.800.83–3.091.53–5.89safer0.44–3.070.54–3.380.97–6.45
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.155.75safe1.16–4.041.59–4.702.76–8.74safer0.78–4.421.17–5.131.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.64–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.38 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.46 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.77 2.55–7.26 | 4.26 2.51–6.00 2.05–6.46 | 9.16 5.55–12.76 4.60–13.72 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.47 10.54–18.39 9.45–19.48 | 11.76 8.20–15.32 7.24–16.28 | 26.23 18.74–33.71 16.69–35.76 | 67% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.16 6.22–12.10 5.39–12.93 | 8.18 5.50–10.86 4.76–11.60 | 17.34 11.71–22.96 10.15–24.53 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.63–6.48 | 2.96 1.31–4.61 0.81–5.11 | 7.01 3.48–10.55 2.44–11.58 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.42–7.85 2.85–8.42 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.82 | 9.93 5.71–14.14 4.61–15.25 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.80 45.01–58.59 43.34–60.26 | 48.45 41.67–55.24 40.00–56.91 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 473 406–541 388–559 | 442 376–509 358–526 | 915 782–1049 746–1085 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.15 64.12–72.18 62.83–73.48 | 71.59 67.27–75.91 65.96–77.22 | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.69 8.85–14.53 8.10–15.28 | 11.48 8.54–14.43 7.79–15.17 | 23.17 17.39–28.95 15.89–30.46 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.66 1.50–3.82 1.20–4.12 | 2.09 1.00–3.18 0.71–3.47 | 4.75 2.50–7.00 1.91–7.59 | 51% 18% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.45 | 35% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.16–4.04 0.78–4.42 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.17–5.13 | 5.75 2.76–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 33% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.