La Liga·Regular Season - 8·
La Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
64%
19%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.083.36safe1.31–3.240.23–1.941.53–5.18safer1.06–3.490.00–2.161.05–5.66
Shots on target
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.694.0910.78safe4.83–8.562.34–5.837.17–14.38safer4.34–9.051.88–6.296.22–15.34
Total shots
82%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction17.5212.0929.61safe13.60–21.458.53–15.6522.12–37.10safer12.51–22.547.57–16.6120.07–39.15
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.968.0119.97safe9.02–14.905.33–10.6914.34–25.59safer8.19–15.734.59–11.4312.78–27.16
Blocked shots
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.593.047.64safe2.71–6.471.39–4.704.10–11.17safer2.17–7.020.90–5.193.06–12.21
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.884.0610.94safe4.67–9.102.06–6.066.73–15.15safer4.10–9.671.52–6.595.62–16.26
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.4147.61safe46.62–60.2040.82–54.39safer44.95–61.8739.15–56.06
Passes
70%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5334691002safe466–601402–535868–1136safer448–619385–553833–1171
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction72.6374.51safe68.60–76.6670.18–78.83safer67.31–77.9568.88–80.14
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9612.9323.89safe8.12–13.809.99–15.8818.11–29.67safer7.37–14.559.24–16.6316.60–31.18
Offsides
39%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.743.52safe0.61–2.930.65–2.841.26–5.77safer0.31–3.230.36–3.130.67–6.36
Yellow cards
24%
18%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.564.21safe0.60–2.701.43–3.692.03–6.39safer0.33–2.961.14–3.981.47–6.95
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
25%
13%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.104.417.51safe1.67–4.542.85–5.964.52–10.50safer1.28–4.932.43–6.393.71–11.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.27 1.31–3.24 1.06–3.49 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 3.36 1.53–5.18 1.05–5.66 | 64% 19% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.69 4.83–8.56 4.34–9.05 | 4.09 2.34–5.83 1.88–6.29 | 10.78 7.17–14.38 6.22–15.34 | 74% 17% |
| Total shots | 17.52 13.60–21.45 12.51–22.54 | 12.09 8.53–15.65 7.57–16.61 | 29.61 22.12–37.10 20.07–39.15 | 82% 14% |
| Shots in box | 11.96 9.02–14.90 8.19–15.73 | 8.01 5.33–10.69 4.59–11.43 | 19.97 14.34–25.59 12.78–27.16 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 2.71–6.47 2.17–7.02 | 3.04 1.39–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 7.64 4.10–11.17 3.06–12.21 | 65% 23% |
| Corners | 6.88 4.67–9.10 4.10–9.67 | 4.06 2.06–6.06 1.52–6.59 | 10.94 6.73–15.15 5.62–16.26 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 53.41 46.62–60.20 44.95–61.87 | 47.61 40.82–54.39 39.15–56.06 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 533 466–601 448–619 | 469 402–535 385–553 | 1002 868–1136 833–1171 | 70% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.63 68.60–76.66 67.31–77.95 | 74.51 70.18–78.83 68.88–80.14 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 10.96 8.12–13.80 7.37–14.55 | 12.93 9.99–15.88 9.24–16.63 | 23.89 18.11–29.67 16.60–31.18 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.13 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 39% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.33–2.96 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 4.21 2.03–6.39 1.47–6.95 | 24% 18% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.93 | 4.41 2.85–5.96 2.43–6.39 | 7.51 4.52–10.50 3.71–11.31 | 25% 13% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.