La Liga·Regular Season - 27·
La Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.973.19safe0.25–2.181.12–2.831.36–5.01safer0.00–2.430.89–3.060.88–5.49
Shots on target
29%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.425.7110.13safe2.56–6.293.96–7.456.53–13.74safer2.07–6.783.50–7.915.57–14.69
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3514.3328.68safe10.42–18.2710.77–17.8921.19–36.17safer9.33–19.369.81–18.8519.14–38.22
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8610.6419.49safe5.91–11.807.96–13.3213.87–25.12safer5.09–12.637.22–14.0612.30–26.68
Blocked shots
37%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.638.81safe2.30–6.062.98–6.285.27–12.34safer1.75–6.602.48–6.774.24–13.38
Corners
45%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.205.1110.31safe2.99–7.423.11–7.116.10–14.52safer2.42–7.992.57–7.644.99–15.63
Possession %
42%
54%
homeawayprediction48.9151.39safe42.12–55.7044.61–58.18safer40.45–57.3742.94–59.85
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction488497985safe421–556430–563851–1119safer403–574413–581816–1154
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction72.4975.11safe68.46–76.5270.79–79.43safer67.17–77.8169.48–80.74
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2411.4824.72safe10.41–16.088.53–14.4218.94–30.50safer9.65–16.847.79–15.1717.44–32.01
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.663.46safe0.64–2.960.57–2.761.21–5.72safer0.34–3.260.28–3.050.62–6.31
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.024.25safe1.18–3.280.89–3.152.07–6.43safer0.92–3.550.60–3.441.52–6.99
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
50%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.763.216.97safe2.32–5.191.66–4.773.98–9.96safer1.93–5.581.23–5.203.17–10.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.97 1.12–2.83 0.89–3.06 | 3.19 1.36–5.01 0.88–5.49 | 23% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.29 2.07–6.78 | 5.71 3.96–7.45 3.50–7.91 | 10.13 6.53–13.74 5.57–14.69 | 29% 60% |
| Total shots | 14.35 10.42–18.27 9.33–19.36 | 14.33 10.77–17.89 9.81–18.85 | 28.68 21.19–36.17 19.14–38.22 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.86 5.91–11.80 5.09–12.63 | 10.64 7.96–13.32 7.22–14.06 | 19.49 13.87–25.12 12.30–26.68 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 4.18 2.30–6.06 1.75–6.60 | 4.63 2.98–6.28 2.48–6.77 | 8.81 5.27–12.34 4.24–13.38 | 37% 13% 49% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.99–7.42 2.42–7.99 | 5.11 3.11–7.11 2.57–7.64 | 10.31 6.10–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 45% 43% |
| Possession % | 48.91 42.12–55.70 40.45–57.37 | 51.39 44.61–58.18 42.94–59.85 | — | 42% 54% |
| Passes | 488 421–556 403–574 | 497 430–563 413–581 | 985 851–1119 816–1154 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.49 68.46–76.52 67.17–77.81 | 75.11 70.79–79.43 69.48–80.74 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 13.24 10.41–16.08 9.65–16.84 | 11.48 8.53–14.42 7.79–15.17 | 24.72 18.94–30.50 17.44–32.01 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.66 0.57–2.76 0.28–3.05 | 3.46 1.21–5.72 0.62–6.31 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.23 1.18–3.28 0.92–3.55 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 4.25 2.07–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.76 2.32–5.19 1.93–5.58 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 6.97 3.98–9.96 3.17–10.78 | 50% 15% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+